The expectation of US-India trade deal kept markets on tenterhooks right through the week. Net outcome, ZERO. Nothing happened, nothing announced. We are still waiting. Therefore markets did the obvious, uncertainty and nothing happened. They slipped and lost ground. BSESENSEX lost 932.42 points or 1.12% to close at 82,500.47 points while NIFTY lost 311.15 points or 1.22% to close at 25,149.85 points. BANKNIFTY lost 277.20 points or 0.49% to close at 56,574.70 points. The broader markets like BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lost 1.24%, 1.24% and 1.14% respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 1.12% while BSESMALLCAP was down 0.63%.  Markets lost on three of the five trading sessions and gained on one. They were flat on Monday, the opening day of the week.

The India Rupee lost 29 paisa or 0.34% to close at Rs 85.79 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on two of the five trading sessions and lost on three. Dow lost 1.02% or 457.01 points to close at 44,371.51 points. Trump has imposed retaliatory tariffs on neighboring countries and many more globally as well. One is not sure where this would lead the US to. On the flip side, many of the countries who would be impacted by the US tariffs are working out deals amongst themselves and ensuring that it is business as usual for their economies.

In primary market news, shares of Crizac Limited who had issued shares at Rs 245, listed on Wednesday the 9th of July. Shares gained Rs 62.45 and closed at Rs 307.45. By the end of the week, they gained further and closed at Rs 338.65, a gain of Rs 93.65 or 38.22%.

The week ahead sees the offer for sale from Anthem Biosciences Limited tapping the capital markets from Monday the 14th of July to Wednesday the 16th of July. The issue consists of an offer for sale of Rs 3,395 crores in a price band of Rs 540 to 570. The company is a CRDMO – contract research development and manufacturing organization with fully integrated operations spanning across drug discovery, development and manufacturing with integrated New Chemical entity and New Biological Entity Capabilities.

The company reported revenues of Rs 1,844.55 crores and a PAT of Rs 451.crores for the year ended March 25. The net margins are a healthy 23.4%. The EPS is Rs 8.04. The PE multiple on a fully diluted basis is at 67.16-70.90. The key takeaway from this offer for sale is that the promoter founder of the company would continue to hold over 52% of the company and is not selling a single share in the entirely an offer for sale issue. This is a big comforting factor for investors who are nowadays very vary of entire offer for sale issues.

Coming to the markets in the week ahead, they are under pressure, no doubt. Trump tariffs have been a pot boiler and with the Indian Government very firm on not relaxing trade terms on agriculture and dairy products as requested by USA, things are taking longer. This has led markets to weaken and now in danger of slipping further. Initial results for the April-June quarter have not been the best and TCS was a bad start to the reporting season. Further results from the sector would be watched to see if the trend continues or was an isolated case.

Key pivot for the market is the band of 24,900-25,100 for the NIFTY. Whichever direction the markets move from here, there would be a 400 points or thereabout runway for markets. Effectively, this is a safety zone and violation of the same alone would lead to volatility in the markets.  The strategy would be to lie low and allow some sense from results to kick in. The expectation of better results for the quarter not coming could be the joker in the pack.

Await trade deal and trade cautiously.

Arun Kejriwal (Market Veteran Investor & Opinion Maker)