Markets during last week were under a lot of pressure, even though they seemed to gain and lose on alternate days. Markets gained on two of the five trading sessions and lost on three. BSESENSEX lost 742.74 points or 0.90% to close at 81,757.73 points while NIFTY lost 181.45 points or 0.72% to close at 24,968.40 points. BANKNIFTY lost 471.70 points or 0.83% to close at 56283 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 0.49%, 0.31% and 0.04% respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 1.05% while BSESMALLCAP was up 1.47%.

The Indian Rupee lost 36 paisa or 0.42% to close at Rs 86.15 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones was volatile and lost on two of the five trading sessions and gained on three. At the end of the week it was negative with minor losses of 29.32 points or 0.07%. Dow closed at 44,342.19 points.

The much awaited and big news flow item, the US-India trade deal is delayed as both parties seem to be negotiating hard. Two areas which are a strict no-no for India are opening up of the agriculture and dairy sectors, which India is just not willing to negotiate. Commerce minister Piyush Goyal, has made it clear that India will not negotiate these areas as India has small farmers and the same cannot be sacrificed come what may. While the delay could push the announcement to even the next month, it is still work in progress. The India-UK trade agreement has happened and so is the one with the EU. It is believed that these two would give Indian Industry a boost.

The other important news flow was to be the results season for the 1st quarter of FY26. That doesn’t seem to be the best start we could have expected or hoped for. Things are not too bright and there is pressure in performance. This is affecting the markets and that is one of the reasons why markets are where they are. Markets have lost just a tad over 2% from their recent highs, yet the talk in the markets is quite negative. Markets seem to be overbought in respect that nobody wanted to lose out on the opportunity. Everybody is committed, actually over committed. Hence, the visible pain points.

Primary markets are on a roll and we seem to be having as many IPOs as the working days in a week. Two more listed last week and we would have more listing and opening this week as well. The two listings last week were from Travel Food Services Limited and Smartworks Coworking Spaces Limited. Travel Food Services after listing with minor losses, recovered ground to close at Rs 1,140.15, a gain of Rs 40.15 or 3.65%. On the other hand, Smartworks opened positive and remained more or less in a range gaining Rs 51.30 or 12.60%.

Issues to list in the coming week would be Anthem Biosciences Limited amongst others.

Coming to the markets in the week ahead we seem to be stuck in a broad trading zone where we have support at levels of 24,400-24,500 on the lower side.  On the higher side, resistance is at levels of 25,400-25,600 points. For any fresh long positions to be taken markets must decisively cross 25,300 and close above these levels at a bare minimum. As mentioned above with results not up to the mark and trade deal now some time away, markets will have to bide their time as well. Finally the over commitment of market participants is also a matter of concern and that could only reduce with sell-off sooner or later.

The strategy to be adopted would be of being stock specific where one needs to play by the ear and news flow. Watch results and go with the winners or stocks which have reported good results. Alternatively look for interesting companies in the primary space where you have plenty of choice available, as issues come thick and fast.

Trade cautiously.

Arun Kejriwal (Market Veteran Investor & Opinion Maker)