• Gold touches a new record high of $3795 (~Rs 112,500) and Silver touches 14 14-year high of $44.40 (~Rs 133,900), encouraged by expectations that the Fed may lower interest rates further this year. Last week, the Fed made its first rate cut of the year and hinted at more to come as the labour market deteriorates.
  • As a result, markets priced in nearly two additional 25 basis point cuts at the central bank’s remaining meetings this year.
  • Strong central bank purchases, consistent ETF inflows, and persistent geopolitical risks—such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the economic consequences of President Donald Trump’s tariffs—have also supported safe-haven flows.
  • For additional direction on the rates outlook, investors are now anticipating a new Fed speech and significant US inflation data this week.

Technical Triggers

  • Gold Oct Futures is on its way to cross $3800 (~Rs 113,000) as the bullish run stays intact. Silver Nov Futures is on its way to touch the next psychological level of $45 (135,000), as the bullish run stays intact. Having said that, one should be very cautious on the buy side, as the rally seems overdone and overbought.

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont