• Following record highs of $3922 (~Rs 118,444) and $48 (~Rs 145,700), respectively, the prices of gold and silver are now taking a breather. The US government shutdown has raised concerns about fiscal policy, inflation risks, and labour market weakness, but it has not had a significant direct political impact thus far.
  • Additionally, the Labour Department was forced to postpone Friday’s September nonfarm payrolls report due to a data blackout.
  • Expectations for two 25-basis-point rate cuts from the Fed in October and December may increase as labour numbers continue to deteriorate due to the anticipated 750,000 federal employees who are expected to be furloughed during this time.
  • At the same time, increased US tariffs raise concerns about international commerce, which increases demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty, while persistent geopolitical tensions continue to support gold’s attractiveness as a go-to safe-haven asset.

Technical Triggers

  • If Gold falls below $3860, it can retrace up to $3825, with resistance at $3890.
  • Silver prices are consolidating at highs. If Nov Fut prices fall below $46.75, we can see profit booking and retracement in prices up $45.75.

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont