Silver’s price has nearly doubled in just 11 months and risen more than gold, even though gold was the most popular commodity in 2025. Over the past 12 months, silver has climbed significantly higher than gold, rising 100% in 2025, whereas gold has only increased by 60%. After several U.S. central bank policymakers indicated support for a third rate cut this year during their December 9–10 meeting, gold ended last week 6% higher and silver increased 17%.

It is anticipated that the economy would continue to slow down until 2026 and that the Federal Reserve will probably drop interest rates, which is attracting some investors back. Expectations that the central bank will lower interest rates next month have increased due to recent dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams, as well as weakening economic statistics following the recent U.S. government shutdown.

In the face of growing supply concerns and rising prospects of additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, silver continued to rise, approaching a record $58. Due to a short squeeze, silver’s increase this year surprised a lot of investors. The 2025 silver bubble, in contrast to previous investment waves, was dependent on a combination of low supply, high Indian demand, industrial demand, and tariffs.While China’s silver exports reached an all-time high of more than 660 tonnes in October, Chinese inventories fell to their lowest level in ten years as a result of strong shipments to London brought on by a supply squeeze.

Shanghai has entered backwardation, a state in which near-term contracts trade at higher prices than longer-dated ones, implying immediate physical scarcity, underscoring the strain on China’s silver market. Silver’s surge last week was fueled by rising expectations of monetary policy easing in addition to the actual market tightening. The likelihood that the Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on December 10 increased dramatically from around 50% to over 90%.

Reports that White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is the front-runner for the next Fed chair, which is thought to be in line with President Donald Trump’s desire for lower interest rates, have heightened expectations.

Gold has started its upward journey again, next target is $4345 (~Rs 130,000) and $4400(~Rs 132,000) with strong support at $4170 (~Rs 125,000).

Given that silver prices have already increased by more than 100% in 2025, many investors are wondering if the boom may continue until December. It seems plausible based on seasonal patterns. After July’s 3.2% and January’s 2.7% average returns, December has been the third-strongest month for silver during the past 30 years, with an average gain of 2.12%.

Silver typically ends December in positive territory 60% of the time. Silver had its biggest December returns in 1997 and 2020, with gains of roughly 17% over the month. This seasonal tailwind may intensify the present price trend for the December target of $60 (~Rs 180,000) and $62 (~Rs 186,000), with firm support at $53 (~Rs 161,000), assuming tight supply conditions continue.

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont