Safe Heaven Dynamics – Gold and silver remain under pressure, hovering below key psychological levels of $5000 and $80 respectively, as investors stay cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. Volatility in oil prices is complicating the inflation outlook, keeping real yields elevated and limiting upside in precious metals despite ongoing geopolitical risks.

Geopolitical Developments – Escalation in the US–Israel–Iran conflict, including strikes on energy infrastructure and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, has intensified supply concerns in oil markets. While such tensions typically support safe-haven demand, the inflationary impact of rising energy prices is delaying expectations of monetary easing, creating mixed signals for gold and silver.

Monetary Policy stance – The Fed is expected to maintain a pause, reinforcing a “wait-and-watch” approach amid sticky inflation and a softening labor market. Similar policy stances by ECB, BoE, and BoJ indicate a synchronized global pause. The key trigger for metals will be forward guidance—any dovish tilt could revive bullish momentum.

Technical Triggers   

Gold briefly broke the key $5000 (~₹157,000) support and short-term bias remain bearish with strong support seen around $4850 (~₹150,000).

Silver has also slipped below $80 (~₹255,000) and renewed break below $77 (~₹247,000) could trigger further profit-booking, dragging prices towards $70 (~₹230,000) in the near term.

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont