Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold and silver are trading in a narrow range following two consecutive sessions of decline. The key driver is renewed geopolitical anxiety after President Trump threatened to strike Iranian civilian infrastructure, raising concerns over a prolonged conflict and its broader economic fallout.

Geopolitical Developments – Trump issued a fresh ultimatum to Iran upto April 8- 5:30 am, demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz or facing strikes on power plants and civilian targets. Iran has rejected the demand and continues attacking regional energy assets. However, diplomatic channels remain active — the US, Iran, and regional mediators are reportedly negotiating a potential 45-day ceasefire framework.

Macroeconomic Signals – Markets increasingly believe that war-driven energy price spikes could reignite inflation, pushing major central banks — including the Fed — toward a hawkish policy tilt. This week, US GDP data and FOMC meeting minutes will be closely watched for directional cues on price momentum.

Technical Triggers   

Gold prices are expected to trade in the range of $4580 (~Rs 144,000) to $4800 (~Rs 154,000) this week breakout or breakdown.

Silver is expected to trade in the range of $67(~ Rs 215,000) to $77(~Rs 243,000) this week before giving a breakout or breakdown.

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont