Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold and silver recovered from recent lows following a US-Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. However, the relief is fragile — Markets remain cautious, with analysts warning that the ceasefire has too many unresolved variables to sustain a durable rally. The recovery in Gold and Silver may prove short-lived if tensions re-escalate.

Geopolitical Developments – Despite the US-Iran truce, geopolitical risk remains elevated. Israeli strikes on Lebanon have raised serious concerns about ceasefire stability. Iran’s Fars news agency reported a temporary halt in tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz following the strikes — a critical chokepoint for global energy supply.

Macro-economic Signals – FOMC March meeting minutes revealed that policymakers are increasingly concerned that prolonged Middle East conflict could sustain inflationary pressures, potentially requiring additional rate hikes. Despite this hawkish undertone, the Fed still pencils in one rate cut this year — leaving markets in a wait-and-watch mode on both inflation trajectory and geopolitical outcome.

Technical Triggers   

Gold has given a breakout above $4,800 (~ ₹1,53,000), signaling bullish momentum. The next upside target is $5,000 (~ ₹1,59,000).

Silver has given a bullish breakout above $76.50 (~ ₹2,43,000), with targets at $82 (~ ₹2,55,000) and $87 (~ ₹2,65,000) on continued strength.

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont