Safe-Haven Dynamics – Bullion prices have recovered firmly, supported by cautious diplomatic optimism on the Iran conflict and sustained central bank buying. However, the upside remains capped by fragile ceasefire conditions. A breakdown in negotiations could pull gold back to the mid-$4,000s swiftly, while a credible peace deal would clear the path toward $5000 — making the current range a pivotal decision zone for markets.

Geopolitical Developments – President Trump expressed optimism over a potential deal to end the six-week conflict, but simultaneously threatened Iran over proposed fees for Strait of Hormuz passage — a move that reintroduced risk premium into energy and bullion markets. Separately, Israeli strikes in Lebanon have further destabilized the fragile ceasefire brokered earlier this week, keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevated and safe-haven demand structurally supported.

Macro-economic Signals – Central bank accumulation continues to provide a strong demand floor for gold. Poland’s central bank purchased 20 tonnes in February, maintaining its strategic target of 700 tonnes in total reserves. China added approximately 5 tonnes in March — its largest single monthly purchase in over a year — capitalizing on a price dip. This sustained institutional buying signals that global reserve managers view current levels as strategically attractive, reinforcing gold’s medium-term bullish outlook regardless of short-term geopolitical noise.

Technical Triggers   

If Gold sustains above $4,800 (~ ₹1,53,000) the next upside resistance would be $5,000 (~ ₹1,59,000).

If Silver above $76.50 (~ ₹2,44,000), the next resistance would be $82 (~ ₹2,55,000) and $87 (~ ₹2,65,000) on continued strength.

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont