Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold is consolidating around $4750 and Silver around $78, recouping some losses from the previous session after President Trump’s unilateral announcement extending the ceasefire with Iran. However, a second round of peace talks has broken down. It remains unclear whether Iran or U.S. ally Israel will formally accept the extended ceasefire, which entered its third week, introducing continued uncertainty into safe-haven demand.

Geopolitical Developments – Trump indicated further military action would be paused pending a new Iranian proposal and the completion of negotiations. Separately, Vice President JD Vance scrapped a scheduled visit to Islamabad after Iran conveyed through Pakistan its refusal to participate in the proposed talks. Iran additionally maintained that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed as long as the U.S. Navy continues intercepting vessels in the region, sustaining a key supply-chain risk factor.

Macro-economic Signals – Precious metal price action continues to be driven primarily by ceasefire-related headlines and broader liquidity conditions. The ceasefire extension has led markets to interpret the situation as a partial de-escalation, reducing immediate crisis premiums. Additional downward pressure on metals emerged from the Senate confirmation hearing of Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, whose commitment to institutional independence signaled a potentially hawkish policy posture going forward.

Technical Triggers   

Gold is trading in the range of $4650 (~ Rs 151,500) and $4850 (~Rs 155,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown will give 3-4% directional move.

Silver is trading in the range of $76 (~ Rs 242,500) and $81 (~Rs 257,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown from this band will give 3-4% price swing.

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont