Safe-Haven Dynamics – Silver surged over 6% to above $78, while Gold rose approximately 3% to trade near $4,700. The primary driver was easing Middle East tensions, which pressured oil prices lower and reduced inflation concerns. Both Iran and the US are engaging mediators to finalise a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding, intended to establish a framework for a month-long negotiation process aimed at ending the conflict.

Geopolitical Developments – The White House is reportedly close to a deal with Iran, marking the most significant diplomatic progress since the conflict began. The proposed agreement would require Iran to accept enhanced UN inspections, suspend nuclear enrichment for 12–15 years, potentially relocate highly enriched uranium, and restrict underground nuclear facilities. In return, the US would phase out sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian assets.

Macro-economic Signals – The US ADP report released Wednesday showed private-sector payrolls expanded by 109K in April, up from a downwardly revised 61K in March. The above-consensus reading signals continued, if uneven, labour market resilience. Meanwhile, CME FedWatch data indicates markets are still assigning meaningful probability to a Fed rate hike before year-end.

Technical Triggers   

Gold has recovered from the $4,500–4,550 (~ ₹1,49,000) support zone, with resistance now targeted at $4,800–4,850 (~ ₹1,55,000).

Silver has met the $78 (~₹2,56,000) upside target; subsequent resistance levels stand at $80 (~₹2,60,000) and $82 (~₹2,65,000).

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont