Geopolitical Developments – Gold and Silver have recovered from its recent lows as investors adopted a wait-and-see stance ahead of Middle East peace talks. Lebanon announced a limited ceasefire between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel, but wider geopolitical risks kept traders cautious. Earlier, traders widely anticipated a 60-day ceasefire extension over the weekend. Instead, both sides have entrenched themselves around their respective red lines, and no agreement has been reached.

Macro-economic Signals – Investors are awaiting the U.S. nonfarm payroll and employment reports, both due later this week, to gauge labour-market strength amid growing inflation concerns tied to the Middle East conflict. Attention also turns to comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Fed Governor Michael Barr, for clues on the future policy direction.

Interest Rate expectations -. Markets now expect the U.S. central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate next, a reversal from the rate-cut expectations held before the Iran war began. The shift reflects rising energy prices and their likely upward pressure on inflation.

Technical Triggers   

Gold stays range-bound between $4,450 and $4,600. Prices have rebounded from the lower edge of the range and are now expected to advance toward the upper edge.

Silver remains range-bound between $72 and $78.50. It too has recovered from the lower boundary and is now expected to climb toward the upper boundary.

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont