Price Movement – Gold declined below $4450, tracking toward a weekly loss exceeding 2% as persistent Middle East instability continued to amplify inflation risks and interest rate concerns, weighing on sentiment. Sustained conflict and ongoing disruptions to energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz kept oil prices elevated, reinforcing fears of a prolonged inflationary environment and the prospect of tighter monetary policy. Dollar strength added further headwinds to metal prices.

Geopolitical Developments – On the diplomatic front, President Donald Trump indicated that peace negotiations with Iran were nearing a conclusion, signaling reluctance to resume large-scale military engagement despite recent escalations. Countering this, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that talks had yielded no substantive progress. Separately, Iran-backed Hezbollah rejected a US-brokered ceasefire proposal between Israel and Lebanon, deepening skepticism around regional de-escalation efforts and sustaining the geopolitical risk premium.

Macro-economic Signals – Market attention in the US shifted to the May non-farm payrolls report, with investors seeking clarity on labor market conditions and the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. Recent data continued to reflect economic resilience, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may tighten policy before year-end. Officials remain focused on managing an energy-driven inflation shock directly linked to ongoing Middle East tensions.

Technical Triggers   

Gold remains range-bound between $4,400 and $4,600; the preferred strategy is to buy on dips and sell into rallies.

Silver is similarly consolidating within the $71–$78.50 band, with an identical tactical approach recommended.

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont