Price Movement – Gold and silver are consolidating near key support levels as markets digest a fragile Israel-Iran ceasefire alongside mounting concerns over inflation and the prospect of further interest rate hikes.

Geopolitical Developments – President Trump confirmed that both parties are pursuing an immediate ceasefire, with final negotiations advancing. Israel and Iran announced a mutual halt to hostilities following a direct appeal from Washington, though Tehran cautioned that it reserves the right to resume strikes if Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon continue.

Macro-economic Signals – CME FedWatch data shows markets now pricing a greater than 70% probability of a Fed rate hike by December. Investors are closely watching May’s U.S. CPI and PPI releases, due Wednesday, for clearer signals on the Fed’s policy trajectory. The European Central Bank is also widely expected to deliver a rate increase this week.

Technical Triggers   

Gold is currently trading at deeply oversold levels near the critical support zone of $4,300 (approximately ₹1,54,000). A technical rebound of 3–4% is anticipated from current levels, driven by bottom-fishing activity. However, a sustained break below this support would shift the near-term bias decisively lower, exposing the $4,000–$4,100 range (approximately ₹1,50,000–₹1,51,500) as the next downside target.

Silver is similarly oversold, testing key support in the $66–$67 range (approximately ₹2,40,000–₹2,42,000). As with gold, a 3–4% technical recovery is the base case on dip-buying, but a confirmed sustainability below this support would accelerate selling pressure toward $60 (approximately ₹2,20,000) in shortterm.

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont