Price Movement – Gold and silver are extending their losing streak despite a temporary US-Iran peace deal, pressured by three concurrent forces. First, a broad risk-off wave triggered by a sharp selloff in AI stocks is spilling over into precious metals. Second, increasingly hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have pushed the probability of a December 2026 rate hike to 86%, lifting the Dollar Index above the 101 mark and weighing on gold. Third, the unwinding of yen carry trades — as USDJPY slides to a 40-year low on rising Japanese interest rates — is generating ripple-effect selling across safe-haven assets.

Geopolitical Developments– US President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that Iran had agreed to indefinite nuclear inspections. Tehran promptly disputed this, casting fresh doubt on the deal’s durability and keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevated.

Macro-Economic Signals – Rate hike expectations are building rapidly. The probability of a July hike has jumped to 36% from just 8.5% a week ago, while September odds have surged from 29.1% to above 70%, per CME FedWatch. Markets now await Thursday’s US PCE data — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — for further policy direction.

Technical Triggers   

Gold is testing its lowest levels of 2026, hovering near the critical support zone of $4,000–$4,060 (~₹1,43,000–₹1,44,500). This zone carries a 90% probability of holding and triggering a rebound, given deeply oversold conditions. A breakdown — though unlikely — would open a decline toward $3,600 (~₹1,30,000), a level that would represent a short-lived dip and a strong long opportunity.

Silver mirrors this setup, consolidating around $60–$61 (~₹2,20,000–₹2,24,000). The same 90% support probability applies. A breach could extend losses toward $54-55 (~₹2,00,000), but any such move is expected to be brief and a buying opportunity.

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont