Price Movement – Gold and silver are extending their losing streak even as a temporary US-Iran ceasefire offers little relief, caught between three simultaneous headwinds. A sharp selloff in AI stocks has triggered a broad risk-off wave that is spilling into precious metals. Separately, the Federal Reserve’s increasingly hawkish tone has pushed the probability of a December 2026 rate hike to 86%, lifting the Dollar Index above 101 and pressing down on gold. Adding to the pressure, the unwinding of yen carry trades — as USDJPY slides to a 40-year low on rising Japanese interest rates — is generating ripple-effect selling across safe-haven assets.

Interest Rate probability – Markets now assign a 68% probability to a Fed rate hike as early as September, up sharply from just 29% a week ago. That hawkish repricing, combined with the dollar trading at 13-month highs and softening inflation expectations, is placing heavy and concurrent pressure on precious metals.

Macro-Economic Signals – Investors are waiting for Thursday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures release — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — for the next policy signal. Current price levels may attract steady central bank buying, which held firm through May. However, persistent inflation concerns at the Fed are expected to cap investment demand and keep near-term risks skewed to the downside.

Technical Triggers   

Gold has broken its key $4,000 support and dropped toward $3,950 (~₹1,40,000). A sustained breakdown would open the path to $3,600 (~₹1,30,000). With prices in oversold territory, a bottom-fishing short-covering rally toward $4,100 (~₹1,45,000) and $4,165 (~₹1,47,000) remains plausible.

Silver has broken below the $60 (~₹2,20,000) level and slid to $55.50 (~₹2,10,000). A continuation of bearish momentum with a breach of yesterday’s low would expose the next support at $50 (~₹2,00,000). Oversold conditions similarly set the stage for a short-covering bounce toward $62 (~₹2,28,000) and $67 (~₹2,38,000).

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont