There was mayhem on Dalal Street after USA resumed its pounding on Iran. They were bombed day and night and the war took on a new proportion. Iran continued attacking US assets in the Middle East and caused enough damage for USA and its allies to realize that Iran is no easy prey. But, it caused oil to flare up and quote at 102$ for Brent before easing to quote at 98.38$, but way above comfort zone. Our markets lost on all five trading sessions. BSESENSEX was down 2,091.68 points or 2.68% to close at 76,059.77 points while NIFTY lost 566.85 points or 2.33% to close at 23,767.45 points. BANKNIFTY lost 1,827.90 points or 3.12% to close at 56,693.50 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 1.93%, 1.83% and 1.85% respectively. BSEMIDCAP was down 1.69% while BSESMALLCAP lost 2.14%. Only one sectorial index managed to close marginally in the green, BSEAUTO which was up 0.10%. The intraweek highs which were made at the open on Monday were at 78,151.45 points on BSESENSEX and at 24,266.10 points on NIFTY. The lows were made on Friday at 75,474.43 points and at 23,606.30 points. The recovery on Friday was sharp if one were to consider the blood bath during the week. Does this augur for a better week going forward, would be a big question mark.

The Indian Rupee was under pressure and lost 28 paisa or 0.29% to close at Rs 96.68 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones lost on three of the five trading sessions and gained on two. It lost 199.15 points or 0.38% to close at 51,947.25 points.

There were three listings on the main board last week. The first was from SBI Funds Management Limited which had issued shares at Rs 574. Shares listed on Tuesday the 21st of July at Rs 610 and closed at Rs 609.90. By weekend the share slipped and closed at Rs 587.20, a gain of Rs 13.20 or 2.30%. The performance could be termed as disappointing. Grey market premium during the tenure of the IPO opening, bidding and even up to listing day moved between Rs 90-100 and reality is in front of us. This clearly demonstrates that grey market and listing are two different planets and must be looked at in the same manner.  

The second share to list was Alpine Texworld Limited which had issued shares at Rs 105. Shares listed on Tuesday the 21st of July at Rs 105 and closed at Rs 99.75. By weekend the share slipped and closed at Rs 85.60, a loss of Rs 19.40 or 18.48%.

The third share to list was from Caliber Mining and Logistics Limited which had issued shares at Rs 424. Shares listed on Friday the 24th of July at Rs 504 and closed at Rs 528.50, a gain of Rs 104.50 or 24.65%.

The week ahead has a mega issue from Manipal Health Enterprises Limited which is raising Rs 9,275.22 crores in a price band of Rs 560-590. The issue is a fresh issue with a small offer for sale component of Rs 1,275 crores. The issue opens on Wednesday the 29th of July to Friday the 31st of July. Manipal Hospital is the largest hospital chain in the country with domination in presence in three of the markets it is present in. These include in Sothern India, Eastern India and micro markets of Pune and Western India. Its new upcoming hospital in Mumbai will further increase its size and presence. It plans to add over 3,000 beds to its existing size of 13,000 beds approx. Healthcare in the organized sector and particularly in corporate sector is rapidly growing in the country and slowly and surely it is getting better organized with large groups entering the fray. This would be someone coming right at the top in terms of capacity and reach. Investment is warranted for the medium to long term.

The week ahead sees July NIFTY Futures expire on Tuesday the 28th of July. The current level of NIFTY at 23,767.45 points is a mere 98.30 points or 0.41% lower than the series open of 23,865.75 points. The series is wide open and anything can happen in the two days remaining. With the kind of fall witnessed last week and the late recovery on Friday, I would tilt the battle in favor of the bulls. Expect them to carry the series through.

Coming to the markets in the coming week, markets broke through the resistance band and then pulled back. All is not lost but we are trading on thin ice. The lows made on Friday at 23,606 points or say 23,600 points are the last support for the trading band of 23,800-24,300 points. If this low were to break, we would open up levels of 23,100-23,300 points. On the upside if the low is not violated and we manage to move up to levels of 24,000 points again, the band would be restored and we would likely see the band taking markets upwards. Very clearly its crucial time in the week ahead.

Strategy would be to keep strict stop losses and trade. Number of primary market issuances would add to the pressure in the market place besides gulf tensions.

Trade cautiously.

Arun Kejriwal (Market Veteran Investor & Opinion Maker)