NIFTY had a muted monthly expiry session, exhibiting a complete absence of meaningful directional movement. Starting the session on a slightly weaker note, buyers initially displayed resilience and attempted to push the index above the previous session’s highs. However, the recovery proved short-lived, as sellers regained control and erased all the early morning gains. The lack of sustained follow-through buying resulted in the index drifting lower through the latter half of the session, eventually settling near the day’s lows at 23985, registering a marginal decline of 0.04%.

Amid an uncharacteristically calm monthly expiry session, NIFTY remained confined within a narrow trading range, resulting in no meaningful change to the overall technical structure of the index. We continue to maintain the broader outlook shared in our previous commentary. Despite the sharp rebound witnessed following Friday’s notable gap-down opening, during which prices successfully retested key support levels, the overall technical setup still warrants caution. The inability of buyers to reclaim the key short-term moving averages namely the 20 DEMA and 50 DEMA; which continue to act as formidable overhead resistance, coupled with a series of stiff resistance levels overhead, suggests that the path higher is likely to remain challenging. Going forward, we expect the index to first retest the demand zone in the 23750–23600 band before attempting any meaningful move higher. Only a successful defense of this support cluster would provide convincing confirmation that buyers have regained control. Until then, with the higher timeframe charts continuing to indicate a broadly sideways trend, we expect the index to remain confined within a narrow trading range. From a level’s perspective, the 24050–24100 band remains the immediate resistance zone, followed by a stronger hurdle in the 24250–24350 range. On the downside, immediate support is placed in the 23880–23800 zone, while a stronger cushion is expected in the 23700–23600 band.

The developing technical structure, particularly in the MIDCAP index, suggests that caution may be warranted. The index has encountered resistance near its previous highs, indicating the presence of strong overhead supply. In such a scenario, it would be prudent to avoid becoming overly aggressive in the broader market. Accumulating stocks on corrective dips towards well-defined support zones is likely to offer a more favorable risk-reward proposition than chasing momentum at elevated levels.

Key levels to watch

NIFTY

Support: 23880 – 23800

Resistance: 24050- 24100

BANKNIFTY

Support: 56900 – 56750

Resistance: 57350 – 57500

Hitesh Rathi, Technical Analyst -Equity & Derivatives, Angel One.