Price Movement – Gold and Silver edged higher as investors weighed conflicting signals over possible U.S.-Iran talks, while awaiting a run of U.S. labor market reports this week for clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate path.

Geopolitical Tensions – U.S. President Donald Trump said discussions with Iran were underway, calling it a “last chance” for Tehran to accept a deal ending the five-month war. Iran, however, denied that any negotiations were taking place or planned.

Macro-Economic Signals – Markets are currently pricing in a 65% probability of a rate [increase] in September, after a divided Fed held rates steady at its last meeting. New York Fed President John Williams said he remains hopeful inflation will ease gradually, but stressed the central bank won’t hesitate to act with rate hikes if it doesn’t.

Technical Triggers    

If Gold falls below $4,000 (~₹1,41,000), it could slide further to $3,900 (~₹1,38,000). But if it manages to stay above $4,200 (~ ₹146,000), a fresh rally could take it toward $4,500 (~₹1,55,000).

For Silver, a strong move above $63 (~₹2,35,000) could push prices toward $70–71 (~₹2,51,000–2,55,000). On the other hand, a fall below $55 (~₹2,14,000) may drag it down to $50 (~₹2,00,000).

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont