The first weekly expiry following the introduction of the new CAS-based closing price determination system commenced on a highly uncertain note. After the previous session’s unusually strong close, where prices witnessed a sharp spike during the closing auction, the session with a gap-down. Prices largely drifted lower throughout the session, as the market appeared to adjust for the previous day’s closing-auction spike. However, a sharp surge once again emerged during the closing auction, resulting in the index recouping almost all of its intraday losses. Consequently, NIFTY ended the session on an uncertain note at 24614, registering losses of 0.64%. The unusual price action around the closing auction continues to warrant caution, as the impact of the new settlement mechanism appears to be introducing elevated volatility into the final minutes of trade.

Despite the uncertainty and heightened volatility surrounding the new closing price determination mechanism, NIFTY appears to be on the verge of confirming a meaningful breakout. A second consecutive close above the previous swing high at 24600 suggests that buyers are successfully holding prices at elevated levels, indicating that near-term control has gradually shifted in favour of the bulls. That said, the higher timeframe technical structure still warrants a degree of caution. On the Daily 1% × 3 Point & Figure chart, the index remains confined within an ongoing three-column triangle formation, which would trigger a confirmed breakout only if prices secure a close above the 24820 mark. A similar technical setup is also visible on the Daily 1% Renko chart, reinforcing the need for additional confirmation before declaring a decisive trend reversal. Considering the alignment across multiple charting systems, it would be prudent to avoid chasing momentum at the current juncture. Instead, participants should adopt a strategy of accumulating on retracements towards strong support zones rather than initiating fresh positions at elevated levels. From a level’s perspective, immediate support is likely to emerge in the 24450–24350 band. On the upside, the high registered during yesterday’s CAS session around 24750 makes the 24750–24800 zone the immediate resistance area, with a decisive move above 24820 required to confirm a sustained breakout.

The MIDCAP index continues to encounter selling pressure near its previous all-time highs, as reflected by the formation of a Doji candlestick on the daily chart. The emergence of a Doji at a major resistance zone highlights indecision and suggests that buyers are struggling to sustain momentum at elevated levels. Given the prevailing technical setup, the immediate outlook remains uncertain. It would therefore be prudent to avoid adopting an aggressive stance at the current juncture and instead maintain a wait-and-watch approach until greater clarity emerges.

Key levels to watch

NIFTY

Support: 24450- 24350

Resistance: 24750-24800

BANKNIFTY

Support: 57400 – 57300

Resistance: 58250 – 58500

Hitesh Rathi, Technical Analyst -Equity & Derivatives, Angel One.