Demand and Supply – Gold and silver are pulling back as investors lock in profits after mild U.S. inflation data pushed bullion to its highest level in over two months and weakened the case for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. With inflation cooling for a second straight month, Fed policymakers are unlikely to feel pressure to raise rates next month.

Geopolitical Tensions – Diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked, and investors are staying cautious about the risk of an escalation that could push energy prices higher and reignite inflationary pressure.

Macro-Economic Signals – The U.S. Producer Price Index held steady in July, as a decline in goods prices offset a rise in services costs, pointing to inflationary pressure that may persist. Traders now see just a 35% chance of a rate hike in September, down from about 55% last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Technical Triggers    

Gold has key support at $4300 (~₹152,000). A sustained break below this level could trigger further profit-booking toward $4200 and $4160 (~Rs 149,000).

Silver has formed a double top near $66.30. If prices sustain below its neckline support of $64 (~Rs 234,000) could open the way down to $61.60 (~Rs 226,000)

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont