Price Movement – Gold and silver edged higher this week as lingering fears around currency debasement kept a bid under precious metals, even as markets held their breath for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks. Traders are currently pricing in a 36.5% probability of a September rate hike, with that figure climbing to 72.7% by December.

Geopolitical tensions – Qatar’s prime minister is set to travel to Tehran in a bid to revive diplomatic channels, following a fresh round of accusations between Washington and Tehran after the U.S. reiterated its intent to ramp up economic pressure on Iran by sanctioning its trading partners.

Macro-Economic Signals – All eyes now turn to Jackson Hole, where Warsh is scheduled to speak on Friday. The market is looking for clearer signals on the Fed’s next move — and if his remarks fall short of offering explicit forward guidance, current rate expectations are unlikely to shift much from where they stand today.

Technical Triggers    

Gold continues to consolidate between $4,585 and $4,675 internationally, while domestic prices have pulled back from Rs 164,700 to Rs 157,000, largely on the back of rupee appreciation driven by RBI intervention. This range looks set to hold through the week.

Silver is showing a similar pattern — trading between $67 and $70 internationally, with domestic prices correcting from Rs 248,000 to Rs 238,500 on the same USDINR dynamics. That range, too, is expected to persist in the near term.

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont