Price Movement – Gold capped off August with a 9.4% gain, while silver surged 15% — the strongest monthly performance for gold, both in percentage terms and outright dollar gains, since February. That momentum hit some turbulence in the final stretch of the month, though, as Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish tone at Jackson Hole combined with fresh flare-ups in the Strait of Hormuz to push oil prices higher and stoke inflation concerns — putting pressure on precious metals just as the month wound down.

Geopolitical tensions – Tensions with Iran reignited on Monday after the first direct exchange of strikes in a month, prompting President Trump to warn of further military action — a sharp turn for a standoff that had, until recently, been playing out mostly on the economic front. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump also weighed in on monetary policy, saying he holds Warsh in high regard and trusts him to “do what he has to do” on interest rates.

Macro-Economic Signals – Markets have a busy data week ahead, with job openings, the ADP employment report, and nonfarm payrolls all due — each likely to be picked apart for signs of where the labor market, and by extension the Fed’s next move, is headed. Per the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in a 66% chance of a rate hike in September, climbing to an 89% probability by December.

Technical Triggers    

Gold’s sharp climb from $4,000 to $4,680 has since cooled, with prices retracing to the 38.2% Fibonacci level near $4,400–4,410. That zone should act as support for now — but a break below opens the door to further downside toward $4,315 and $4,235. On the flip side, a sustained move above $4,500 could set up a fresh rally toward $4,700 and eventually $4,900.

Silver has followed a similar arc, pulling back to around $66 after its run from $55 to $71. Holding above this level keeps the setup intact; a breakdown could send prices toward $63 and $61. If silver instead pushes and holds above $67, look for a renewed push toward $71 and $76.

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont