Price Movement – Gold and silver are caught in a tug-of-war right now — squeezed between growing expectations that the Fed will tighten policy further (a headwind for non-yielding metals) and softer oil prices, which are offering some cushion against deeper losses. With the dollar holding above the 100 mark and October hike odds now past 50%, the setup looks structurally tough for bullion. If hawkish signals keep piling up ahead of the October meeting, this pressure could well extend.

Geopolitical Tensions – All eyes were on the Trump-Xi summit, with markets hoping for some forward movement on trade. Xi’s visit — his first to the US in nearly three years — was never billed as a breakthrough moment, but there was real hope Washington and Beijing could stretch their 11-month trade truce a little further. That hope firmed up when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed a deal on the extension, shortly after Trump personally welcomed Xi at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland.

Macro-Economic Signals – Inflation pressures are building, the economy is showing real strength, and all of this is nudging the Fed closer to a rate hike — timed awkwardly close to critical national elections. Traders have taken notice, and bets are stacking up for a second consecutive round of tightening in late October. Adding to the picture, Wednesday’s data showed US business activity hit a more-than-five-year high in September, though robust demand is straining supply chains and pushing prices up in the process.

Technical Triggers
Spot gold is trading in a $4,250–$4,450 (~ Rs 150,000-154,000) range with a bullish bias. Buy on dips near support and sell into rallies.
Spot silver is trading in a $62.5–$67.5 (~ Rs 230,000-242,000) range, also with a bullish bias. The approach is the same: buy dips near support and sell rallies.

Dr. Renisha Chainani, Chief Research Officer (CRO),Augmont