The Indian indices began the session on a subdued note, weighed down by a confluence of negative macroeconomic factors, including weak global cues, rising crude oil prices, and depreciating rupee. Additionally, the recent rate hike further intensified pressure on investor sentiment. With the bulls remaining largely absent, bears maintained a firm grip throughout the session, driving broad-based selling across sectors. The benchmark Nifty50 index declined sharply by over 1.64%, settling near the 22232 zone and registering a fresh 52-week closing low.

On the technical front, the formation of a strong bearish candlestick, coupled with a fresh 52-week closing low, indicates a fragile chart structure, with the 2025 lows now coming into close proximity. Despite deeply oversold technical parameters and the sharp vertical decline, the index has failed to witness meaningful respite, as bears continue to maintain control amid an unfavorable macroeconomic backdrop. With Nifty50 index sliding further, the 22080-22000 zone, representing the swing closing levels of 2025, is now firmly in focus. A decisive breach of this support band could accelerate the decline towards 21750, which may emerge as the next potential pitstop for the bears. On the flip side, a relief rally following the recent carnage cannot be ruled out. However, any technical rebound should not be construed as a trend reversal, and a cautious approach remains prudent. On the upside, 22350-22450 is expected to act as an immediate resistance zone, while 22600-22800 remains the formidable barrier in the index.

Going ahead, the sharp rise in the India VIX above the 15 zone signals heightened market uncertainty, with the commencement of the earnings season likely to further amplify volatility. In the current environment, investors are advised to refrain from aggressive bottom-fishing and instead await signs of stability, while maintaining disciplined risk management. The strategy should remain stock-centric, with selective exposure and measured positions, until the global macro backdrop shows signs of improvement and volatility begins to subside.

Key levels to watch

NIFTY

Support: 22080 – 22000

Resistance: 22350 – 22450

BANKNIFTY

Support: 54250 – 54000

Resistance: 54850 – 55000

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager – Technical & Derivative Research, Angel One.