Price Movement – Gold and silver slipped as climbing oil prices revived inflation worries and strengthened the view that interest rates may stay elevated for longer. Investors are now looking to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting for fresh signals on where policy is headed.

Geopolitical Tensions – Oil has pushed further above $110 after fresh Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia led the US to order some diplomats and their families to leave its missions in the Kingdom. Stubborn inflation, fuelled largely by high energy costs, has strengthened the argument for tighter monetary policy, but Fed policymakers are still expected to stay patient for now.

Macro-Economic Signals – Attention now turns to next week’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, the gauge the central bank watches most closely as it works towards its 2% inflation target. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, traders see only a 16% chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting, though they are pricing in a 90% probability of an increase in December.

Technical Triggers    

Short-term (10-15 days) – Gold is holding inside a key support zone of $4,080–$4,200 (~₹1,44,000–₹1,50,000). A sustained move above $4,200 would open the door to a near-term rebound towards $4,400 (~₹1,58,000). A break below support, however, could pull prices down to $3,950 (~₹1,40,000) in the short term. Silver, meanwhile, broke its $57 support (~₹2,09,000) and moving towards the next target is $55 (~₹2,00,000), a zone where buyers have stepped in twice before. On the upside, a decisive move back above $59 (~₹2,16,000) could set up a run towards $62 (~₹2,28,000).

Medium term (2-3 Months) – Gold and silver are trying to build a base around $3,950–4,000 and $50–55 respectively, which is a very strong support zone. Prices are expected to hold these levels and rebound by 10–15%.

Dr. Renisha Chainani, Chief Research Officer (CRO),Augmont