Price Movement – Gold and silver are clinging to their support levels for now. Investors are still working through the Federal Reserve’s latest signals after policymakers held interest rates steady, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks have added to the debate. All eyes now turn to the US inflation data due later today, which could offer a clearer read on where rates are headed next.

Geopolitical Tensions – Markets are watching closely as fresh diplomatic efforts try to keep the Middle East conflict from escalating further. Oil prices, though, remain stubbornly high. That keeps inflation pressures alive and props up expectations of higher interest rates, a mix that could weigh on silver in particular.

Macro-Economic Signals – Two Fed officials broke ranks and voted for a 25-basis-point rate hike. Their dissent has strengthened market bets on a possible increase in December, with energy-driven inflation refusing to cool. Adding another layer of uncertainty, Warsh suggested the Fed could cut its rate decisions from eight a year to six, a change that could make the policy path harder to predict.

Technical Triggers    

Short-term (10-15 days) – Gold has slipped below its key $4,000 (₹1,42,000) support, which leaves room for a further fall towards $3,950 (~₹1,40,000). Silver has also broken its $54.5 (~₹2,00,000) support and could ease towards the $50 (~₹1,80,000–1,85,000) zone.

Medium term (2-3 Months) – Both metals are trying to build a base, gold around $3,950–4,000 and silver around $50–55. These are strong support and accumulation zones. We expect prices to hold here and then rebound 10–15% over the coming weeks. For the uptrend to resume, gold needs to stay above $4,100 and silver above $58.

Dr. Renisha Chainani, Chief Research Officer (CRO),Augmont