Price Movement – Gold and silver kept sliding as higher oil prices revived inflation worries, and strong US inflation data strengthened the case for another Federal Reserve rate hike this year. Consumer prices picked up in September because gasoline and other goods cost more, so economists still expect the Fed to raise rates in December.

Geopolitical Tensions – Crude rose on fears that the US could resume military strikes on Iran, which raises the risk of fresh disruptions to energy supplies. That matters for metals: higher oil feeds inflation and makes the interest-rate outlook harder to read.

Macro-Economic Signals – The Fed has left the door open to a hike before year-end as it tries to tame stubborn inflation. Thursday’s data backed that view: the US personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.5% last month, its biggest jump since March. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, traders now see about a 75% chance of a December hike.

Technical Triggers    

Short-term (10-15 days) – Gold has slipped below its key $4,000 (₹1,42,000) support, which leaves room for a further drop towards $3,950 (~₹1,40,000) and $3,900 (~₹1,38,000). Silver has also broken its $52.5 (~₹1,92,000) support and could drift towards $50 (~₹1,80,000).

Medium term (2-3 Months) – Both metals are trying to build a base, gold around $3,900–3,950 and silver around $50–52. We see these as strong support and accumulation zones. We expect prices to hold here and then rebound 10–15% over the coming weeks. For the uptrend to resume, gold needs to stay above $4,100 and silver above $58.

Dr. Renisha Chainani, Chief Research Officer (CRO),Augmont