Home Markets Expiry week and new listings to increase volatility

Expiry week and new listings to increase volatility

by Arun Kejriwal (Market veteran investor and Opinion Maker)
Mar 22, 2021
Expiry week and new listings to increase volatility, Market, KonexioNetwork.com

Markets continued to remain highly volatile and the trend of the previous week which saw markets gain on Mondays and lose ground on Friday, was reversed. This week we saw markets lose ground on Monday and gain ground on Friday. Markets lost ground on the first four days of the week and it appeared midway through Friday that this would happen for a fifth day in a row. However markets reversed very sharply. BSESENSEX saw an intraday move of over 1,300 points while NIFTY saw a move of almost 400 points. Huge volatility, and it took most traders to the cleaners. The BSESENSEX ended the week with losses of 933.84 points or 1.84% to close at 49,858.24 points while NIFTY ended the week with losses of 286.95 points or 1.91% at 14,744.00 points. 

Dow Jones made a new lifetime high of 33,228 points. It was down 150.67 points or 0.46% at 32,627.97 points. The Indian rupee gained ground and was up 27 paisa or 0.37% at Rs 72.51 to the US Dollar. 

The week gone by had plenty of action on the primary markets front. Two IPOs listed during the week and six issues closed for subscription during the week. The first to list was MTAR Technologies Limited which had issued shares at Rs 575. The share debuted at Rs 1063.75 against an issue price of Rs 575. After hitting a high of Rs 1154, profit taking saw the issue lose some ground and the share closed at Rs 1,082.25, a gain of Rs 507.25 or 88.22%. The share slipped further during the week and closed at Rs 969.40, a gain of Rs 395.60.

The second issue to list was Easy Trip Planners Limited which had issued shares at Rs 187. The share debuted at Rs 206, made a high of Rs 233.15 and closed at Rs 208.30. It gained Rs 21.30 or 11.39%. The cost of funding in this issue was around Rs 110 which meant all leveraged HNI’s who sold their shares on day one has lost money. 

The fresh issue from Anupam Rasayan Limited closed for subscription and was subscribed 45.21 times. The company had raised Rs 760 crs in a price band of Rs 553-555. QIB portion was subscribed 65.99 times, HNI portion 97.78 times and Retail portion was subscribed 10.81 times. There were 16.49 lac applications.
 
The issue from Craftsman Automation which had a fresh issue component of Rs 150 crs and an offer for sale of 45,21,450 shares in a price band of Rs 1488-1490 was subscribed 2.80 times. The QIB portion was subscribed 5.21 times, HNI portion 2.84 times and Retail portion 3.44 times. There were 5.42 lac applications.

The issue from Laxmi Organics Limited which consisted of a fresh issue of Rs 300 crs and an offer for sale of Rs 300 crs was subscribed 106.81 times. The price band was Rs 129-130. The QIB portion was subscribed 175.43 times, HNI portion 217.62 times and Retail portion 20.11 times. There were 23.35 lac applications. 

The issue from Kalyan Jewellers Limited which consisted of a fresh issue of Rs 800 crs and an offer for sale of Rs 375 crs in a price band of Rs 86-87 was subscribed 2.64 times. The QIB portion was subscribed 2.79 times, HNI portion 1.93 times, Retail portion 2.85 times and Employee portion 3.78 times. There were 5.94 lac applications. 

The issue from Suryoday Small Finance Bank Limited which had tapped the capital markets with its fresh issue of 81.50 lac shares and an offer for sale of 109.43 lac shares in a price band of Rs 303-305 was subscribed 2.37 times. The QIB portion was subscribed 2.18 times, HNI portion 1.31 times, Retail portion 3.09 times and Employee portion 0.34 times. There were 3.44 lac applications.

The final issue was from Nazara Technologies Limited which had tapped the capital markets with its offer for sale of 52,94,392 shares in a price band of Rs 1100-1101. This was the company which had the maximum hype in the markets. The issue was subscribed 175.46 times with QIB portion subscribed 103.77 times, HNI portion 389.89 times, Retail portion 75.29 times and Employee portion 7.55 times. There were 23.35 lac applications.
 
There is an issue tapping the markets in the coming week from Barbeque Nation Hospitality Limited. The issue consists of a fresh issue of Rs 180crs and an offer for sale of 54.57 lac shares in a price band of Rs 498-500. The issue opens on Wednesday the 24th of March and closes on Friday the 26th of March. The company has recently in January 2021 allotted about 10% of its shares through a preferential allotment to Jubilant Food works Limited. This was a strategic allotment. The company Barbeque Nation runs a chain of restaurants and has 144 outlets across the country and six of them overseas as well. The company had been incurring losses in the last couple of years and hopes to be back in the black in the next financial year (2021-2022).

The government first sold shares through an offer for sale in Tata Communications. This was followed up by the government doing a block deal with the Tata group. This sale saw the government exiting from the company completely. This company was earlier known as VSNL. Post the fall in the market because of the OFS, this should be a stock to keep an eye on. 

The week ahead sees March futures expire on Thursday the 25th of March. The current value of futures is lower by 353.35 points or 2.34% compared to the beginning of the series. While the bears have had an upper hand so far in the month, what with a mega scare on Friday as well, the tussle would be interesting. While bears would like to press their advantage, bulls would like to claw their way back. The next four days of trading into expiry would be interesting and highly volatile. 

On the covid-19 front, the world saw 12,38,50,904 patients, 27,27,428 deaths and 9,97,78,463 patients recovering. In India we saw 1,16,45,719 patients, 1,60,003 deaths and 1,11,49,234 patients recovering. During the week, the world saw 34,49,106 new patients, 62,664 new deaths and 28,32,777 patients recovering. In India we saw 2,60,561 new patients, 1,241 new deaths and 1,43,789 patients recovering. In India, the new cases and the number of active cases has been rising quite sharply. Maharashtra is again at the forefront of new cases and cities like Mumbai, Nagpur and Pune are leading the surge. We need to ensure that social distancing and wearing of masks always is strictly followed. 

The week ahead with expiry in four days would see an increase in volatility. Further there would be four primary issues which closed for subscription last week listing. Readers are advised to use sharp dips to add to their position and use rallies to sell and book profits. On a medium-term basis, upcoming results in a fortnight from now would set the trend going forward.