Markets have a mind of their own
and they show what they can do. Last week they rose on four of the five trading
sessions and the benchmark indices touched around the highs made in the middle
of March. From there on they fell and
corrected quite sharply. They ended the week with gains of 903.91 points on
BSESENSEX or 1.89% to close at 48,782.36 points. NIFTY gained 289.75 points or
2.02% to close at 14,631.10 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and
BSE500 gain 2.07%, 2.06% and 2.17% respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 1.80% while
BSESMALLCAP was up 3.17%.
The highs on the BSESENSEX
intraweek made on Thursday was 50,375 points, a level last seen on the 18th
of March and lost about 1,600 points. It is important to note even after losing
1600 points in a little over a day and a half, the BSESENSEX gained 900 points.
NIFTY, lost over 400 points from the high of 15,044 points and gained 289
points for the week. Markets have been super volatile without doubt and money
making is becoming that much more difficult or easier, depending which way you
look at it.
The India Rupee gained 95 paisa
or 1.27% to close at Rs 74.06 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones lost 168.64 points or
0.50% to close at 33,874.85 points.
Thursday saw April futures expire
on a volatile note. After gaining over 180 points intraday, NIFTY surrendered
150 points and ended with gains of a mere 30 points. For the series, the gains
were 570 points or 3.98%. Incidentally, at the end of the previous week, the
monthly gains on April futures were a mere 16 points. This means that as much
as 555 points were added in four days of trading.
The GST collection for the month
of April 2021 was a record 1.41 lac crs which is the highest figure ever.
Considering the fact that the comparable figure last year is not comparable as
we had a complete lockdown, this figure is impressive as it is. Even
considering that partial lockdown exists in many parts of the country
currently, the figure may not be repeated in May, it still remains commendable.
Reliance reported impressive
profits for the fourth quarter and yearly results. The company reported a net
profit of Rs 14,995 in 4th quarter 2021 versus 6,546 for the same
quarter in the Financial year 2020. On an annual basis the company reported a
net profit of Rs 53,739 cr in FY21 versus Rs 39,880 crs in the previous year.
PowerGrid Infrastructure
Investment Trust is tapping the capital markets with its units in a price band
of Rs 99-100. The fresh issue is for Rs 4993.48 crs while the offer for sale is
for Rs 2741.51 crs. The issue has opened on Thursday the 29th of
April and closes on Monday the 3rd of May. The trust would own
assets in the power transmission business and the initial five assets would be
acquired from the sponsor, PowerGrid Corporation of India Limited, a Maharatna
company. Currently 76% of the capital of each of these five SPV’s would be
acquired and going forward as they complete two years of being in operation,
the balance 26% would be acquired in a phased manner.
This would be the third invit to
be listed and the first from the CPSE stable after IRB and India Grid. The
returns from the trust as mentioned in the document indicate that the pay-out
would amount to Rs 11-12 per unit for the first three years. This pay-out would
be in three different components consisting of interest payment, dividend and
return of capital. The expected ratio would be 60%, 20% and 20% respectively.
The interest payment would be taxable in the hands of the investor while the
return of equity would be non-taxable. Also, about a fourth of the dividend
income would be tax free. Effectively it could be said that 75% would be
taxable and 25% tax free. Assuming the pay-out of Rs 12, it could be assumed
that for an investor with normal taxable profile, he would earn Rs 6 after paying
tax of Rs 3 on the taxable income and Rs 3 tax free, making this a hybrid
instrument earning 9% tax-free returns in the initial period of three years.
SEBI has introduced a provision
where key employees of mutual funds would be given a fifth of their income on a
cost to company basis in the form of investments in the funds that they
operate. This would allay the fear of many investors who question whether the
fund manager has any skin in the game. While leading fund houses have already
been doing the same, the general diktat would be a welcome step.
Coming to the covid-19 front, the
world saw 15,34,91,361 patients, 32,16,353 deaths and 13,08,00,895 patients
recovering. In India, we saw 1,99,19,715 patients, 2,18,945 deaths and 1,62,81,738
patients recovering. Compared to the previous week, the world saw 57,07,982 new
patients, 93,815 deaths and 54,80,022 patients recovering. In India we saw 26,13,445
new patients, 23,829 deaths and 19,85,098 patients recovering. For the record,
the total number of patients in India at the beginning of the calendar year was
just about 1 cr. We are now in a little over four months almost double at 2 cr
patients. The last three weeks have seen a massive surge and the new patients
added have increased by about 75 lacs. A massive drive to create infrastructure
required is on in India and we should be better off in the next fortnight or
so. In the meanwhile, ‘STAY AT HOME, STAY SAFE’
Coming to the markets, the
election results declared so far are on expected lines with probably the margin
of victory of TMC in West Bengal being far better than expected. With NDA
retaining power in Assam and winning Puducherry, they have fared as expected.
The LDF retaining Kerala and breaking a tradition of almost five decades, where
the ruling front is ousted, would be a shocker for the Congress led UDF. DMK
has won Tamil Nadu which was expected. In terms of market expectations, nothing
significant on the election results outcome to impact markets either way.
With extreme volatility being
witnessed, markets continue to be in a trading zone. With Dow Jones not sure of
the trend and tightening of rules in India expected, economic activity would
take a back seat in the initial half of May. While there should be an
improvement on the covid-19 front by the month end, things would be in a fluid
situation till then.
The best strategy would be to buy
on sharp dips and sell on strong rallies. We have seen how markets react and
last Thursday and Friday were classic examples of the same. Trade cautiously.