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Markets in ‘Now or Never’ mood for new lifetime highs

by Arun Kejriwal (Market veteran investor and Opinion Maker)
May 29, 2023
Markets in ‘Now or Never’ mood for new lifetime highs, Market, KonexioNetwork.com

Markets closed the week with a bang and gained sharply on the first day of the June series. The June series would be of five weeks and markets are now less than 2% away from lifetime highs.  The whole of the next week would be spent in deciding, will we or won’t we make a new high. BSESENSEX gained on three of the five trading sessions, lost on one and remained flat on the fifth session. BSESENSEX gained 772.01 points or 1.25% to close at 62,501.69 points while NIFTY gained 295.95 points or 1.63% to close at 18,499.35 points. The broader indices like the BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gained 1.80%, 1.95% and 1.87% respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 2.49% while BSESMALLCAP was up 1.39%. 

The Indian Rupee gained 8 paisa or 0.10% to close at Rs 82.58 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones lost on the first four days of the week before gaining on Friday and recovering half of the weekly losses. Dow Jones lost 333.29 points or 1.00% to close at 33,093.34 points. The debt crisis continues in the US and the last date has been extended to Monday the 5th of June. Monday is a trading holiday in the US and that helped the bulls give a leg up to the markets in India. The fact that it was also the first day of a new five-week series also helped matters. 

SEBI has been taking the job of vetting the RHP document very closely and in detail. The move is welcome news for the investor. One point that comes to mind which is not addressed, is the cyclicality in a business of the IPO bound company. Take the example of construction companies which have a weak quarter when there is rain in the country during July-September, or a consumer company has a very strong October to December quarter because of festivals. Companies must mention this and give a broad breakup of first half and second half sales or maybe even what approximate percentage sales come in each quarter. This would leave out the ambiguity in result analysis. One hopes the regulator would take note of the suggestion and if found appropriate ask the issuers of capital to incorporate. 

May future series expired on a positive note on Thursday the 26th of May. The series closed at 18,321.15 points, gaining 406.10 points or 2.27%. It was a series where the bulls were in control almost throughout the series. 

Markets are once again eyeing new highs and are within striking distance of the same. The all-time highs were made on the 1st December 2022 on a closing basis and an intra-day basis. These levels were 63,583.07 and 63,284.19 points on BSESENSEX and 18,887.60 points and 18,812.50 points on NIFTY. The closing levels on Friday the 26th of May were at 62,501.69 points and 18,499.35 points respectively. The difference on a closing basis is about 1,100 points or 1.73% on BSESENSEX and about 400 points or 2.11% on NIFTY. These levels could get breached in the coming week or markets may once again fail to cross the all-time highs. Looking at the market moves; these are doable in a week or if the mood is not there may just not happen. The bulls and bears need to keep their fingers crossed and it would be interesting to see whether the accelerator is pressed or the brakes. 

The Supreme Court appointed panel has given a clean chit to the Adani group and so has SEBI who has not alleged or found any wrong doing in investigations done so far. As a result of this clean chit, the group stocks were in limelight and gained sharply. The best performer was the group flagship company Adani Enterprises which gained Rs 688.15 or 35.16% to close at Rs 2,543. The company has also announced its fund-raising plans and once the funds are raised, the investors would bring further validation to the group and add confidence to its market standing. 

Results season is coming to an end with just three days left for the reporting period to end. There are a host of midcap and Smallcap companies which are yet to declare results and there would be surprises, some pleasant and some unpleasant in many of these companies. The action in the market would be confined to these stocks. Coming to the rest of the market, focus would be on the attempt to make new highs. This would ensure sharp intraday volatility. The strategy would continue to remain focussed on midcap and Smallcap stocks. The markets have become a little shallow with shorts having been squeezed out on Friday during the sharp rally. Key resistances would be at 18,650-18700 and at 62,950-63,100 levels. If these are broken, then the next level would be the 1st December 2022 top of 18,887 and 63,600. On the support side, immediate support exists at 18,300-18350 levels on NIFTY and at 62,025-62,175 levels on BSESENSEX. If these are violated, the next levels would be at 18,000-18,050 or 61,150-61,300 levels. 

Markets would be fast paced and volatile. Brace yourselves for action which could determine a new top or failure to cross the previous highs. It’s a case of now or never.