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Best chance during week for new indices

by Arun Kejriwal (Market veteran investor and Opinion Maker)
Sep 11, 2023
Best chance during week for new indices, Market, KonexioNetwork.com

Markets were in a very aggressive mood last week and gained on all five trading sessions. Something like this has not happened in a long time and they now seem set to make a new lifetime high and cross Mount 20K on NIFTY. BSESENSEX gained 1,211.75 points or 1.85% to close at 66,548.91 points while NIFTY gained 384.65 points or 1.985 to close at 19,819.95 points. The broader market saw BSE100, BSE200and BSE500 gain 211%, 2.37% and 2.36% respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 3.93% while BSESMALLCAP was up 2.26%. The top performing sectoral index was the BSEPSU index which gained a massive 5.52%. With less than 180 points to go for NIFTY to touch the magical mark of 20K its now or never. 

The Indian Rupee was under some pressure and lost 22 paisa or 0.27% to close at Rs 82.94 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on two of the four trading sessions, losing on the remaining two. It lost 261.12 points or 0.75% to close at 34,837.71 points. 

In the markets, momentum is being built to cross the obstacle of 20K on NIFTY. We had strong sustained gains during the week and on expected lines, the rally saw HDFC Bank finally participating. It gained Rs 49 or 3.11% to close at Rs 1,649. This helped the BSEBANKEX chip in with decent gains of 1.32%. This leaves just Reliance as the non-participating heavyweight stock in the benchmark indices. Though it did gain 1.49% or Rs 36 during the week, one expects much more from the heaviest of stocks. It may be expected that in the coming week markets have their best chance of making a new high with HDFC participating, Reliance close to a momentum setup and markets less than 1% away from a new life-time high. Conversely God willing, if the move fails, we could see a sell-off. FPIs are sellers and the market is driven by Domestic institutions buying and individual investors participating in the Smallcap and midcap space. 

In primary markets we saw the shares of Vishnu Prakash R Punglia Limited listed on the bourses. The company has issued shares at Rs 99 and was very well received. The share debuted at Rs 164.45 and closed under selling pressure at Rs 145.93, a gain of Rs 46.93 or 47.40%. By the end of the week, the share recovered lost ground and closed at Rs 172.75, a gain of Rs 73.75 or 74.49%. 

SEBI has introduced new norms for listing in T+3 days which would be mandatory from the 1st of December 23. Two recent issues would be doing the same voluntarily and would list on Monday the 11th of September. The first is the main board issue from Ratnaveer Precision Engineering Limited.  which had tapped the markets and was open for subscription between Monday the 4th of September and Wednesday the 6th of September. The price band was Rs 93-98. The issue was subscribed 93.94 times overall with the QIB portion subscribed 133.05 times, HNI portion subscribed 135.19 times and Retail portion subscribed 53.92 times. There were 20.77 lac applications in all. The other issue is from the SME platform, Basilic Fly Studio Limited. This issue has garnered over Rs 15,000 crs subscription and would also list on Monday. 

The issue from Jupiter Lifeline Hospital Limited was subscribed 65.42 times overall with the QIB portion subscribed 187.96 times, HNI portion subscribed 36 times and Retail portion subscribed 8.00 times. The issue was open from Wednesday the6th of September through the 8th of September and the price band was Rs 695-735. There were 14.6 lac applications. 

The issue from EMS Limited has opened on Friday the 8th of September. The price band is Rs 200-211 and the issue would close on Tuesday the 12th of September. The issue at the end of the first day was subscribed 3.71 times overall with QIB portion subscribed 0.09 times, HNI portion subscribed 5.97 times and Retail portion subscribed 4.72 times. There are 2.90 lac applications so far. 

In primary market news we have an issue opening on Wednesday the 13th of September and closing on Friday the 15th of September. The issue is from R R Kabel Limited which is into the business of making cables and wires and a small but emerging ‘FMEG’ business which contributes around 9% of the revenues currently. The price band is Rs 983-1,035 and consists of a fresh issue of Rs 180 crs and an offer for sale of 172.36 lac shares. The issue size would be around Rs 1,950 crs. 

There is plenty of action in the primary markets currently and until and unless we have a substantial correction in markets or a debacle in the primary markets, this action would continue. 

Coming to the markets, it’s a week where history is likely to be made with markets getting into a mood which borders euphoria or is already there. Expect the inevitable to happen with a rider, that if it fails there would be a short-term disaster in the form of a correction or they would cross the new high. Once they do so, the next target would become 3% higher or another 600 points on NIFTY and about 1,800 points on BSESENSEX. These levels would be after gaining or mounting 20K.

The strategy would be to ride the wave and bet on the heavyweight stocks in the benchmark indices to perform. Continue to book profits and sell those stocks from the midcap and Smallcap space which have outperformed. Keep your back covered and both eyes on the markets as corrections would also come without notice. Trade cautiously.