The week prior to Diwali had the expected fireworks and indications are now available that we would be moving into new territory. Trump continues on his own and seems determined to bid for his Nobel Peace Prize all over again in 2026. Wishing him and the world all the best. This would certainly mean that new fronts of confrontation would be opened before they are resolved.

BSESENSEX gained on three of the five trading sessions and was up 1,451.37 points or 1.76% to close at 83,952.19 points. NIFTY gained 424.50 points or 1.68% to close at 25,709.85 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.54%, 1.31% and 1.12% respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 2.01 points and was flat while BSESMALLCAP was down 337.61 points or 0.63%. The top sectorial gainer was BSEREALTY, up 4.12% while the top loser was last week’s gainer, BSEIT. It lost 2.30%.

The Indian Rupee gained 69 paisa or 0.78% to close at Rs 87.95 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on three of the five trading sessions and lost on two. It was up 711.01 points or 1.56% to close at 46,190.61 points. Trump’s whimsical statements have begun to hurt the country and it seems to be losing its bargaining power as the top economy. It is forcing the world to come together and embark on a path of ‘de-dollarization’ which is gaining momentum and traction. This is certainly not in the interest of the USA, but no one in the country has the guts to say so to ‘POTUS’.

Two of the biggies, Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank have declared quarterly results which have been good and augur well for the markets. Auto numbers are good and the impact of the massive GST reduction is reflecting in the buoyancy in the sector and others which are seeing similar traction. While the auto giants are yet to declare results, they would include a mere 9 days of sales under new GST regime in the results to be included. Further, after announcement of GST cut in the last week of August, auto sales and sales of other products being positively impacted had got deferred for the month.

The primary market has definitely seen fatigue setting in. As of date in the current calendar year we have already seen more than 84 mainboard IPOs list with quite a few more waiting to launch. Easily one of the best in terms of number of issues and fund raised. This of course does not include the many OFS done on the exchanges, QIP issues and rights issues as well. Fund raising at its best. Have not spoken on the SME segment as that is difficult to understand and explain.

Coming to SAMVAT 2081 which would be ending on Monday the 21st of October, it was a wild and choppy year. We began the year on 1st of November 2024 at levels of 79,389.06 points on BSESENSEX and 24,205.35 points on NIFTY. The lows made were during April 25 when levels of 71,425 and 21,743 points respectively were made. From there we have travelled a long way and closed at levels of 83,952 and 25,709, marginally lower than the highs of 84,172 and 25,781, both made on Friday the 17th of October. We have one more day to go before Samvat 2081 comes to an end. The year could be surmised as a below average year at the markets with returns of 5.75% on BSESENSEX and at 6.22% on NIFTY.

‘MUHURAT’ trading would be held on Tuesday the 21st of October in the afternoon between 1.45 pm and 2.45 pm. This is the first time in over four decades that I remember that Muhurat trading would be held in the afternoon. Strange as it may sound, it’s an auspicious hour of trading and would like to wish all my readers, “A Happy Diwali and Prosperous Samvat 2082”. Wednesday would be a trading holiday for markets.

With last week’s up move and definite break upwards of resistance at 25,500-25,600 points, the levels shift upwards. New levels would now be at 26,100-26,200 points on NIFTY and support at 25,100-25,200 points.

Trade cautiously.

Arun Kejriwal (Market Veteran Investor & Opinion Maker)