Gold and silver have posted strong rebounds in recent sessions, with gold up about 4% and silver outperforming near 10%, driven primarily by heightened safe-haven demand amid macro and geopolitical uncertainty. The rebound reflects investor flows back into bullion as risk assets falter and uncertainties mount around economic growth, trade policy, and geopolitical risk.

Weaker U.S. GDP and macro cues

U.S. economic data showed slower-than-expected Q4 GDP growth at around 1.4% annualised, well below forecasts, signaling that the economic expansion has lost momentum. At the same time, inflation readings continue to show persistence, leaving policymakers in a data-dependent stance. The weaker growth outlook supports expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts, which is constructive for gold and silver prices as lower rates tend to reduce real yields and support non-yielding assets.

Tariff uncertainty and trade policy risks

A landmark U.S. Supreme Court ruling struck down sweeping tariff powers previously wielded by the president, creating uncertainty around global trade policy. Although an alternative tariff was announced by Trump on the same day, ambiguity and potential disruption to existing trade deals have unnerved markets. The resulting dollar softness makes precious metals cheaper for foreign buyers and reinforces safe-haven flows.

Geopolitical risk premium remains elevated

Growing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, including warnings from President Donald Trump over nuclear talks and possible military action, have reintroduced a geopolitical risk premium into markets. Such risk-off dynamics tend to amplify silver’s volatility alongside gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Dollar and rate expectations

The dollar’s recent weakness, partly due to trade and growth uncertainties, has boosted bullion appeal. Traders still see potential for rate cuts later in the year as growth softens while inflation gradually eases, a combination that typically favours precious metals.

The recent rebound in gold and silver prices is driven by a mix of macro slowdowns, tariff uncertainty, and renewed geopolitical risks, rather than a pure technical reversal. These factors are supportive of safe-haven demand in the near to medium term. Investors should watch additional U.S. economic prints, Fed policy messaging, and geopolitical developments closely, as these will influence the durability of the current precious metals uptrend.

Gold has delivered a decisive breakout, sustaining above the key psychological level of $5,000 and moving past its earlier consolidation ceiling near $5,130. This technical breakout indicates renewed bullish momentum, with prices now likely targeting the next resistance zones at $5,300 (approximately ₹1,63,000) and $5,400 (approximately ₹1,66,000). The move suggests fresh buying interest rather than short covering, keeping the near-term bias positive.

In contrast, silver continues to trade within a consolidation range. Prices are gradually approaching the resistance level around $92 (approximately ₹2,80,000). Unless a strong breakout occurs above this zone, silver may remain range-bound with intermittent volatility.

Given the current setup, a disciplined buy-on-dips and sell-on-rallies strategy remains advisable, particularly in silver, while gold maintains a stronger upward momentum bias.

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont