• Anticipating lower US interest rates and safe-haven demand helped gold rise beyond $3600, close to record levels, and on pace for a weekly gain of more than 3%.
  • Further deterioration was indicated by the most recent ADP report, which showed that private payrolls increased by just 54,000 in August, significantly less than expected, and that jobless claims hit their highest level since June. To solidify their bets on a short-term Fed move, investors are now awaiting the August NFP data, which is out later today.
  • There is a virtually 100% chance that markets will price in a 25 basis point drop on September 17. Since lower interest rates lessen the opportunity cost of keeping non-yielding assets, traders are now betting on up to three cuts this year, which would help gold.
  • Concerns about the Fed’s independence have been exacerbated by President Trump’s actions, and the demand for safe-haven assets is being increased by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and global trade uncertainties.

Technical Triggers

  • Gold seems to continue its run-up towards its record high levels again. Next target $3650 (~Rs 108,000) and $3700 (~Rs 110,000).
  • Silver continues its upward trajectory for the next target of $42 (~Rs 125,500) and $43 (~Rs 130,000).