Gold is trading at about $3375 (about Rs 97000) as investors keep a careful eye on the Middle East conflict that is getting worse after the US became involved in Israeli strikes on Iran. Over the weekend, US forces attacked Iran’s three primary nuclear installations, and President Donald Trump threatened to launch additional strikes if Tehran does not negotiate. The Israeli-Iranian conflict has given new impetus to a surge that has raised gold prices by about 30% this year.
Gold fell almost 1% on Monday after beginning the week under bearish pressure. Despite last weekend’s missile strike exchange between Iran and Israel, safe-haven flows did not control financial market activity. Due to global selloffs sparked by the growing Middle East war, investors also sold precious metals to offset losses elsewhere.
The US Federal Reserve also maintained a cautious, data-dependent stance and held interest rates unchanged last week, cautioning that President Donald Trump’s new tariffs may exacerbate inflation and make the outlook for the economy more complex. Trump, however, restated his demands that interest rates be lowered by 2.5 percentage points by the US Federal Reserve.
The Israeli military has reportedly hit around 20 targets in and around Tehran on the tenth day of the Israel-Iran conflict, including locations connected to Iran’s development of nuclear weapons and missiles. The confirmation of a significant discovery in Argentina—one of the biggest copper, gold, and silver deposits in three decades—that is believed to contain 13.2 million tons of copper and more than 80 million ounces of gold and silver combined put additional pressure on sentiment regarding the supply front.
Following a symmetrical triangle breakout last week, gold prices are consolidating at high levels. Bullish momentum should continue till gold prices are trading above $3300 (~Rs 96300). This week, prices are anticipated to fluctuate between $3320 (~Rs 97000) and $3420 (~Rs 100,000); a breakout or a breakdown will provide a 2-3% rise or fall.
Silver has finally given a breakout from its range – above $35 (~Rs 102,000) to trade at an all-time high of $37 (~Rs 107,000). The next target is $38 (~Rs 111,000), if this positive momentum continues above ATH, while support lies at $35.5 (~Rs 104,000).
This week, a number of Federal Reserve officials are due to address Congress. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify for two days, during which time the possible effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the attack on Iran are anticipated to be discussed.
Dr. Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont – Gold for all
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