• Gold prices rose above $4240(¬Rs 128,000), maintaining its surge to a new high, propelled by demand for safe haven assets and mounting anticipation of a dovish US monetary policy outlook.
  • With a 98% chance, traders are pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut in October. A second cut in December is fully factored in at 100%. Investors have almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate drop at this month’s meeting, with another expected in December, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments noting indications of a worsening labour market.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that, in coordination with European allies, Washington might also impose export restrictions or taxes on China’s imports of Russian oil.
  • In the meantime, the protracted government shutdown increased market anxieties and posed threats to the US economy.

Technical Triggers

  • As gold continues this rally, next resistance is $4250(¬Rs 128,000) and $4300 (¬Rs 130,000). We can see reversal if prices sustain below $4090 (¬Rs 125,000)
  • Silver is facing strong resistance at $53.50 (¬Rs 165,000), if it clears, next resistance is $55 (¬Rs 170,000). While downside support is $50.50 (¬Rs 155,000), if prices sustain below that level, more profit-booking can follow.

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont