It was a short truncated week with trading on a mere three sessions. Markets gained on two of the three sessions and lost on one. The short week was however very eventful. It began with expiry of NIFTY March futures, the end of trading for the financial year 2025-2026 and the beginning of new financial year 2026-27. One can only hope and pray that the New Year brings better tidings. The three trading sessions were different from each other. While the first day was a down day, the second day was an up day and the third saw a sharp recovery from down day to actually close positive. The spectacular recovery in the Indian Rupee also helped sentiment. 

BSESENSEX lost 263.67 points or 0.36% to close at 73,319.55 points while NIFTY lost 106.50 points or 0.47% to close at 22,713.10 points. BANKNIFTY lost 725.85 points or 1.39% to close at 51,548.75 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 0.36%, 0.43% and 0.29% respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 0.48% while BSESMALLCAP gained 1.48%. BSEIT was the top sectorial gainer and was up 2.95%.

The Indian Rupee was the top performer and saw a spectacular recovery and gained a massive Rs 1.50 or 1.58% to close at Rs 93.23. This was not because of RBI intervention on the Rupee, but RBI ensuring that speculators on the Indian Rupee did not get access to cheap funds to be used for Rupee-Dollar speculation. Things worked and worked wonderfully.

Dow Jones gained on three of the four trading sessions and lost on one. It was up 1,338.03 points or 2.96% to close at 46,504.67 points.

NIFTY March futures expired on a weak note and the series saw losses of a massive 3,093.25 points or 12.17% to close at 22,331.40 points. The last time we saw similar losses were six years back when Covid-19 had broken out. This was in March 2020 and the level of NIFTY was around 8,660 points.

We had four listings during the week and it was certainly not encouraging. It could be termed as a bad end to the year which has ended and also a poor beginning. The first of the list was from Coal India subsidiary, Central Mine Planning Design Institute Limited which listed on Monday the 30th of March 2026. It had issued shares at Rs 172. While the share closed day one at Rs 154.05, a loss of Rs 17.95, it recovered marginally to close at Rs 155.95 at weekend. The share lost Rs 16.05 or 9.33%.

There were three listings on Thursday the 2nd of April. The first of these was from Powerica Limited which had issued shares at Rs 395. Shares closed at Rs 390, a loss of Rs 5 or 1.27%.

The second was from Sai Parenterals which had issued shares at Rs 392. The share closed day one with support from the house which had brought the issue as lead manager and it closed at Rs 406.40, a gain of Rs 14.40 or 3.67%. Arihant Capital Markets Limited bought 4,51,212 shares on BSE at Rs 407.60. How one should read this is a bit confusing but not something that normally happens.

The third and final issue was from Amir Chand Jagdish Kumar Exports Limited which had issued shares at Rs 212. The share opened at Rs 195 and closed at Rs 175.50, a loss of Rs 36.50 or 17.22%. Very clearly it appears that the issue was not well marketed or accepted by the investors.

Coming to the week ahead, we have RBI meeting for its bi-monthly monetary policy meeting on Monday to Wednesday. It is widely expected that RBI could keep rates unchanged with current Repo rates at 5.25%.

An update on war. Donald Trump continues with his wild statements and his self-imposed timeline or ultimatum would expire on Sunday/Monday for making the Strait of Hormuz open. The war has been opened on many fronts and hearing the American side of the story, one wonders what is left in Iran. Yet, they are able to take down aircrafts and make life hell for the Middle East neighbors where there are US bases. How this war would end, when it would end is now becoming a major cause for concern for all. Iran has sent a list of bridges which are under their active consideration for retaliation if their infrastructure is attacked. The less talked about the US-Iran war the better. This war makes your blood boil at the casualties that it is throwing up even without ground assault. What would happen if ground war begins, Heaven help?

Coming to the week ahead. We would have trading for five full trading sessions which would certainly make trading momentum hold and not have jerks. It would be volatile and choppy and entire focus on the geo-political issues. The lows made on Thursday, which was the last trading day at 71.545.81 points on BSESENSEX and at 22,182.55 would act as supports on any down move. If these were to break we have support at 70,000 points and 21,700 points respectively. Will these levels be reached or breached, only time will tell. On the upside, we have resistance at 23,000 points and 74,500 points. The strategy for the week would be avoid overnight positions and concentrate on intra-day moves. It will provide enough opportunities for trade. For building a portfolio it’s time to wait for probably another 7-14 days when better clarity would be available.

Trade cautiously and for our betterment hope that clarity and sanity makes geo-political situation normalize at the earliest.

STOP PRESS: This article was written yesterday morning. Since then Donald Trump has used language which a head of government does not or should not use for anyone. It shows frustration and anger at having not been able to achieve what he set out to do even as the war enters its sixth week. Considering multiple deadlines on Monday and Tuesday, expect very choppy markets. Remember that social media is unreliable and in market times can be dangerous. The attack on GCC infrastructure by Iran in retaliation to Iran infrastructure attacks is a new dangerous trend emerging. This will have lasting and costly damage.

Therefore trade only if necessary or you have the resources to take them to its logical end.

Arun Kejriwal (Market Veteran Investor & Opinion Maker)