It was a topsy-turvy week with extreme volatility. Last week instead of Friday jitters we had Thursday jitters and the reason for the same was Iran-US tensions. For next week we have one more cause for volatility with the US Supreme Court striking down the global tariffs increased and levied by Trump as being beyond his authority and stated that Trump exceeded his authority. However, Trump being Trump and refusing to let go and remain on Page three and Page one of every newspaper globally and also television channels, introduced a 10% tariff on all countries with whom US has struck a trade deal. This was on Friday after the Supreme Court order. The same has already been amended in less than 24 hours to become 15%. One thing is for sure, he wants to be the Numero Uno person and in the thick of things every time whether rightly or wrongly.

BSESENSEX gained on three of the five sessions and lost on two sessions. It was up 188.01 points or 0.23% to close at 82,814.71 points while NIFTY gained 100.15 points or 0.39% to close at 25,571.25 points. BANKNIFTY gained 985.35 points or 1.64% to close at 61,172.00 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 0.36%, 0.44% and 0.39% respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 1.32% while BSESMALLCAP was down 2.03%. Very clearly markets were choppy. On the one hand banking stocks kept the markets going while AI saw to it that IT was down in the dumps.

The Indian Rupee was under pressure and lost 36 paisa or 0.40% to close at Rs 91.00 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on three of the four trading sessions and lost on one. It gained 125.04 points or 0.25% to close at 49,625.97 points.

There were two main board listings on Monday last week. Both of them closed in the negative on opening day and at the end of the week as well. The first was AI Company, Fractal Analytics Limited which had issued shares at Rs 900 per share. On day one it closed at Rs 847.40, a loss of Rs 52.60. By weekend, it gained marginally and narrowed the loss to close at Rs 858.95, a loss of Rs 41.05 or 4.56%.

The second company to list was Aye Finance Limited which had issued shares at Rs 129. The share closed a tad lower on listing day at Rs 128.90 and the loss increased at weekend to Rs 125.50. The weekly loss was Rs 3.50 or 2.71%.

There are four main board issues in the week ahead. These include Gaudium IVF and Women Health Limited, Shree Ram Twistex Limited, Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions Limited and PNGS Reva Diamond Jewellery Limited. None of them are a clear outstanding listing gain candidate which can be recommended as a blind buy. With so much of volatility and Donald Trump creating trading opportunities every single day, it makes better sense to look at secondary markets rather than primary markets. Further there is a six day window between the issue opening and listing which could create a whale of difference in market sentiment.

The week ahead has February futures expiring on Tuesday the 24th of February. Current series is up 395.85 points or 1.57% at 25,571.25 points. The February series had begun at 25,175.00 points. With just two days to go, the bulls have a clear advantage and should take the series.

Markets are unable to cross levels of 26,300 points on NIFTY and that has clearly become a stumbling block. On support side we seem to be bouncing off levels at 25,300 points. The trading zone is even narrower at 25,500 and 26,000 points. These become the outlier points and for any meaningful movement these levels have to be breached decisively. Will it happen, is a million dollar question. However, Trump will certainly know as he is the only person who is currently aware of his next move. The setback on tariff front on account of the Supreme Court judgment could force him to use diversionary tactics by actually doing something on the Iran front which is currently highly inflammable situation. God forbid, if something were to happen, the repercussions would be beyond prediction and guessing.

The current market situation is so fluid that if you were to dip your hands into a swimming pool to feel the temperature before diving in and then went up to dive, the temperature could have changed to very hot or very cold. What you need to do, is feel the water and then just jump in. Don’t attempt to dive. In short quick entry and exit. Take quick trading calls and avoid any weekend positions as a Friday overnight position into Monday morning could be a major disaster.

Tricky situation in markets currently but fortune favors the brave. Trade with stop losses and as per your risk appetite. Volatility is in favor of the risk taker.

Trade cautiously. 

Arun Kejriwal (Market Veteran Investor & Opinion Maker)