Price Movement – Gold and silver have pulled back as oil prices surged and inflation worries deepened after US President Donald Trump declared that the interim agreement meant to end the conflict with Iran was “over.”

Geopolitical Tensions – Tensions flared further as Iran said it had struck US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait, after US forces hit Iranian targets in response to tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices jumped more than 5% on the news. Following yesterday’s clash, the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran now looks shaky, meaning the situation could turn volatile again fairly quickly.

Macro-Economic Signals – The Fed’s meeting minutes revealed that committee remain divided on their economic outlook and rate projections. While FOMC members were unanimous in wanting to hold rates steady for now, a few argued in favour of a rate hike. Markets are now pricing in a 68% chance of a rate hike in September, and an 87% chance of one by January 2027, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Technical Triggers    

As flagged earlier, gold’s $4,080 target has been achieved. From here, prices could move either way depending on how the US-Iran situation escalates or cools off. If gold holds above $4,090 (~₹1,44,000), it could head higher toward $4,160 (~₹1,47,000). But if it slips and stays below $4,040 (~₹1,43,000), the pullback could extend further toward $3,950 (~₹1,41,000)

Silver’s earlier $59 target has also played out. With prices now holding below this level, it looks set to trade weaker, potentially heading toward $55 (~₹2,10,000).

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont