Last week was moving as predicted and expected but then Donald Trump decided that he was left out of the picture. The massive crowd at the funeral of the late Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei received an unprecedented response which rattled Trump. Further there was a death call raised against Trump at the funeral and this made Trump even more worried. What happened to global markets on Wednesday the 8th of July was a blood bath and it shook markets all over the world. Crude shot up, equities crashed, and so did gold and silver. It was mayhem. BSESENSEX lost 1,677 points while NIFTY lost 520 points. All in one day. The momentum, it appeared was gone, but markets have a mind of their own. Over Thursday and Friday, they almost made up what they lost. The week ended with BSESENSEX losing 194.52 points or 0.25% to close at 77,569.39 points while NIFTY lost 63.95 points or 0.26% to close at 24,206.90 points. BANKNIFTY gained 107.40 points or 0.19% to close at 58,045.90 points. The broader markets saw BSE100 lose 0.15% while BSE200 and BSE500 gained 0.16% and 0.20% respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 1.15% while BSESMALLCAP gained 0.44%. The top sectorial gainer was BSEREALTY which was up 5.38% while the top loser was BSEFMCG which was down 1.18%.

The Indian Rupee lost 14 paisa or 0.15% to close at Rs 95.47 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on three of the five trading sessions and lost on two. It was down 263.06 points or 0.50% to close at 52,637.01 points.

There were two mainboard listings in the last week. The first was from Aastha Spintex Limited which had issued shares at Rs 136. The share listed on Monday the 6th of July at Rs 130. It closed day one at Rs 136.45. By weekend it had fallen to Rs 122.90, a loss of Rs 13.10 or 9.63%.

The second share to list was from Knack Packaging Limited which had issued shares at Rs 170. The share listed on Wednesday the 8th of July at Rs 186 and closed day one at Rs 182.70. Over the remaining two days of the week, the share gained further to close at Rs 209.95, a gain of Rs 39.95 or 23.50%.

The week ahead sees the mega issue from SBI Funds Management Limited, hitting the markets. The entirely an offer for sale of 17,09,56,631 equity shares is in a price band of Rs 545-574. There is a reservation of 1,30,55,629 equity shares for shareholders of SBI who can participate in this offer.  SBI is the largest AMC in the country and has an AUM of Rs 29.3 lakh crores. This comprises of a mutual fund AUM of Rs 12.5 lakh crores. The AMC has strong parentage in State Bank of India and its French partner Amundi. The share is reasonably priced and offers appreciation in the short term and medium term as well.

The offer from Kusumgar was very well received and was subscribed 135.76 times overall. QIB portion was subscribed 299.59 times, HNI portion was subscribed 174.29 times and Retail portion was subscribed 27.88 times. There were 37.19 lac applications in all.

Coming to the markets, even though we had a sharp correction on Wednesday which was entirely war related, levels of 23,800 held. This indicates strength at this level. This becomes ‘LAXMAN REKHA’ for the markets on the downside. As long as this holds, one should be long in the markets. On the upside we came quite close to 24,600 and had it not been for Wednesday, would have in all probability breached the level. That becomes the immediate target for the coming week. Just about 400 points on NIFTY and if all goes well, should be able to breach the same. That would be a level to increase long positions and with a stop loss at 24.200-24,300 points. Its early days, but even FPI’s are turning bullish.

Trade cautiously and on the long side.

Arun Kejriwal (Market Veteran Investor & Opinion Maker)