Price Movement – Gold and silver are holding firm as the dollar stays on the back foot, with renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and a fresh round of inflation data keeping traders locked in on where interest rates go next. A hawkish Fed remains the main drag on gold, but that pressure is being offset by the ongoing dollar debasement trade and persistent unease over U.S. fiscal deficits — both of which continue to lend the metal support.

Geopolitical tensions – Tensions have escalated sharply. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and struck 10 ships, retaliation for what it claims was the U.S. destroying five Iranian oil tankers. It marks a serious escalation in a conflict that’s now stretched past six months.

Macro-Economic Signals – All eyes are on Thursday’s producer price index, with CPI data landing Friday right behind it. A hotter-than-expected print would bolster the case for a September hike, likely pushing yields higher and adding to gold’s recent slide. A softer read would work the other way — easing pressure on the dollar, cooling rate expectations, and potentially giving gold room to push back toward $4,400.

Technical Triggers
Gold looks set to trade in a $4,300 (~₹150,000) to $4,500 (~₹157,000) band, favoring a buy-the-dip, sell-the-rally approach for now.

Silver has more room to run — a hold above $67 (~₹243,000) opens the path toward $70 (~₹247,000). But a break below $65 (~₹236,500) would flip the setup, exposing a move down toward $63 (~₹230,000).

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont