Price Movement – Gold and silver slipped as investors braced for the Federal Reserve’s policy verdict, due later in the day. Rate-hike bets have hardened sharply — markets are now pricing in a 92.4% probability of at least a 25-basis-point increase, up from roughly 60% just a week ago. That repricing tracks closely with Brent crude’s climb toward $110 a barrel, which has stoked inflation worries and driven U.S. yields to multi-year highs above 5%.

Geopolitical Tensions – Saudi Arabia issued security alerts covering a swath of territory, including the holy city of Mecca and the kingdom’s second-largest city, Jeddah, after a week of attacks by Iran-aligned fighters pulled it further into the region’s widening conflict.

Macro-Economic Signals – With a hike now all but priced in, attention is shifting to what the Fed signals about the road ahead. Traders will be parsing the updated dot plot and economic projections for hints on whether policymakers see room for a further hike later this year. Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks on oil prices and inflation will draw particular scrutiny.

Technical Triggers

Spot gold finds support at $4,275 (~Rs 150,000); a sustained break below that level opens the door to the psychological $4,150 (~Rs 145,500) mark as the next line of defence, while resistance sits in the $4,430–4,500 (~Rs 154,500–156,000) band.

Spot silver has carved out a Head and Shoulders pattern, with neckline support at $62.5 (~Rs 231,000) key to preserving its broader uptrend. A break below that level would expose $60 (~Rs 220,000) and $57 (~Rs 210,000), while $67 (~Rs 244,000) caps the near-term upside.

Dr. Renisha Chainani, Chief Research Officer (CRO) ,Augmont