The Indian equity markets commenced the new Samvat on a cautious note, with benchmark indices witnessing early bouts of profit booking amid heightened volatility. However, the initial weakness was met with buying interest at lower levels, triggering a gradual recovery in the latter half of the session. The emergence of buying support helped the bulls recoup most of the intraday losses, enabling the Nifty50 index to eventually close in positive territory. Despite the lack of strong directional momentum, the index demonstrated resilience and settled marginally higher around the 25050 mark, reflecting a tentative improvement in investor sentiment at the onset of the new Samvat.

The technical outlook remains largely unchanged amid subdued price action. However, the formation of a hammer-like candle following the sharp vertical rally witnessed last week warrants a degree of caution going forward. On the positive front, the successive bullish crossovers of the 20-DEMA above the 50-DEMA and subsequently the 100-DEMA underscore an improving underlying trend and a healthy technical structure. Nevertheless, the 14-day RSI hovering around 78 reflects overbought conditions, suggesting limited room for aggressive upside in the immediate term.

On the levels front, the 24800-24770 zone is expected to offer immediate support and cushion any intermittent profit booking, while the broader support base remains firmly placed in the 24600-24500 range. On the upside, 25150 is likely to act as an intermediate hurdle, and a decisive breakout above this threshold could unlock further upside towards 25400. Given the stretched momentum indicators, a calibrated approach with a buy-on-dips strategy remains preferable over aggressive fresh positioning at elevated levels.

Going forward, we maintain a constructive market stance and recommend a focused approach towards thematic outperformers, with stock-specific opportunities remaining the preferred strategy for intraday participants. Market participants should remain vigilant and closely track key developments throughout the truncated trading week, as any unexpected triggers could potentially influence market dynamics, alter the prevailing sentiment and dictate the near-term trajectory of the indices.

Key levels to watch

NIFTY

Support: 24800 – 24770

Resistance: 25150 – 25400

BANKNIFTY

Support: 59200 – 58800

Resistance: 60150 – 60450

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager – Technical & Derivative Research, Angel One.