Wishing all a happy and Prosperous Samvat 2083.

It was Diwali week which began one week earlier. The mid-term elections in USA where the ruling Republicans were routed and lost control of both houses, crude oil falling significantly and earlier war monger Israeli PM Netanyahu losing in the elections, was good news for the globe and particularly for India. Add to that the fact that FPI’s poured in about Rs 46,000 crores since the month began, augur well for a solid beginning to Samvat 2083.

Markets gained on all five trading days of the week. BSESENSEX gained 6,400.21 points or 8.60% to close at 80,793.29 points while NIFTY gained 1,928.90 points or 8.38% to close at 24,938.90 points. BANKNIFTY gained 4,399.05 points or 8.04% to close at 59,086.00 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 7.99%, 7.62% and 7.15% respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 4.33% while BSESMALLCAP gained 2.48%. The top sectorial gainer was BSECONSUMER DURABLE which gained 10.77% while the one to gain the least was BSEIT which was up a mere 1.33%. The high and lows on the benchmark indices were made on Friday and Monday respectively, indicating the strength that the rally had. The highs were at 80,874.32 points and 74,978.12 points on BSESENSEX and at 24,949.85 points and 23,207.05 points on NIFTY.

Last week I had mentioned Reliance Industries having declared excellent results and being the leader for the rally of the coming week. It happened as expected and Reliance rallied from Rs 1164 to 1318, a gain of Rs 154 or 13.23%. Double digit weekly gains in Reliance have not happened in a long time and it was a key mover for markets followed by banking sector stalwarts like ICICI and HDFC Bank.

The Indian Rupee gained Rs 1.14 or 1.20% to close at Rs 94.07 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on two of the five trading sessions and lost on three. It was down 484.58 points or 0.94% to close at 51,285.73 points. Post the election debacle, oil prices have cooled significantly. Brent is down to 98$ versus about 113$ about a week ago. This is what has driven markets. In USA we saw on Thursday a sell-off in AI stocks as the feeling is now that Republicans have lost control of both houses, expenditure on AI could see a major slowdown. NASDAQ and AI related stocks were hammered out of shape.

Samvat 2082 has not been a good year for Indian stock markets and they registered flattish returns. The last week leading to the end of Samvat 2082 has helped in doing so as markets gained close to 8%. Gold had peaked in January 2026 and then saw a sharp correction lead by the eight month war that happened between Iran-versus USA and Israel. Yet gold gave returns of just about double digit to investors. The one between Russia and Ukraine continues unabated.

Coming to the broader time frame of Samvat 2083 ahead of us, expect markets to perform unlike what happened over last two years. Positive returns would be the order of the day and the expectation that tax reforms for FPIs is likely to happen would add to the performance. Be rest assured that domestic institutional investors who have supported the markets through thick and thin would be the biggest gainers if this predicted and expected rally happens. Gold should be a good place to invest in for a one year or longer perspective.

Coming to the week ahead, we have an auspicious trading session for Samvat 2083 on Sunday afternoon for about an hour and a half. There would be a trading holiday on Tuesday for Diwali. After a super smart rally last week we need to consolidate on the gains made. Expect resistance around 25,300-25,400 points on NIFTY and further up around 25,600 points. Immediate support exists at 25,450-500 points. Safety lies in large caps and one may avoid small cap and midcap currently.

On a lighter note, Trump wanted a regime change in Iran. What Iran has achieved is a double. Regime change in Israel and a sound defeat for Republicans in the mid-term.

Wishing all readers Happy Diwali and a prosperous SAMVAT 2083.

Arun Kejriwal (Market Veteran Investor & Opinion Maker)