It turned out to be a disappointing monthly expiry session for NIFTY, as sellers continued to maintain control over the index. Starting the day on a slightly positive note, prices quickly came under pressure, with sellers effectively using higher levels to exert pressure. Thereafter, a stiff tussle ensued between buyers and sellers amid expiry-related volatility, with neither side able to establish decisive control. The index eventually wrapped up the session at the 23865 mark, registering losses of 0.34%.

Despite the continued weakness in the frontline index, with prices extending the decline for a second consecutive session, no significant changes have emerged in the broader technical structure. This is also reflected in the muted performance since the previous expiry close, with NIFTY ending the June expiry almost flat, registering losses of just 0.06%. We continue to maintain a cautious stance and await a decisive breakout from the defined range, either below the 23800–23750 support zone or above the 24150–24200 resistance band. Until prices continue to oscillate within this range, we do not expect any meaningful expansion in momentum on the index front. The 23800–23750 zone holds significant importance, as it coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the prior upswing from the June lows, along with the confluence of the 20 and 50 DEMA. As long as prices sustain these key short-term moving averages, it would be premature to aggressively position on the short side. However, a decisive break down below the 23800–23750 support cluster is likely to accelerate selling pressure, potentially opening the downside towards the bullish gap zone of 23630–23600 initially, followed by the 23400 mark and recent swing lows. On the other hand, while buyers continue to defend immediate support levels, the first indication of buyers regaining control would come only with a sustained move above the 23950–24000 zone. Until then, it would be prudent to avoid chasing upside momentum.

While frontline indices continue to exhibit a lack of directional momentum, broader markets once again witnessed some encouraging moves. The relative outperformance of the broader market was evident, with Midcap and Smallcap indices closing in positive territory while frontline indices ended lower. Participants should continue to adopt a stock-specific approach, with selective pockets of strength emerging in sectors such as Pharma, NBFCs, and Realty.

Key levels to watch

NIFTY

Support: 23800 – 23750

Resistance: 23900- 24000

BANKNIFTY

Support: 57200 – 57100

Resistance: 58000 – 58300

Hitesh Rathi, Technical Analyst -Equity & Derivatives, Angel One.