Price Movement – Gold and Silver bounced back on technical buying as investors weighed the widening Middle East conflict and waited for next week’s U.S. Federal Reserve meeting for hints on where interest rates are headed. The conflict’s recent escalation pushed oil prices to their highest level in over a month on Monday, while more U.S. policymakers argued that rates might need to go up to keep inflation in check.

Geopolitical Tensions – Tehran received a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire, aimed at rescuing the interim ceasefire deal signed in June. Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator, and urged Islamabad to keep up its efforts.

Macro-Economic Signals – ADP data revealed that U.S. private employers added just 16,500 jobs per week on average in the four weeks ending July 4, down from 19,250 a week in the previous four-week stretch — the fourth consecutive slowdown in hiring. Markets largely expect the Fed to hold rates steady at next week’s meeting, though they’re pricing in a more than 55% chance of a rate hike in September.

Technical Triggers    

If Gold falls below $4,000 (~₹1,41,000), it could slide further to $3,900 (~₹1,38,000). But if it manages to stay above $4,200, a fresh rally could take it toward $4,500 (~₹1,55,000).

For Silver, a strong move above $63 (~₹2,35,000) could push prices toward $70–71 (~₹2,51,000–2,55,000). On the other hand, a fall below $55 (~₹2,14,000) may drag it down to $50 (~₹2,00,000).

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont