Price Movement – Gold and silver are still under pressure. Higher oil prices have revived inflation worries, and investors are now looking to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting for hints on where interest rates go from here. With energy costs keeping inflation stubbornly high, the market continues to expect the Fed to tighten further.

Geopolitical Tensions – Tensions are building in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, and a fresh wave of attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has deepened fears of supply disruptions. Oil started climbing again after a diplomat played down reports that a deal to end the US-Iran conflict was close, though talks are still going on.

Macro-Economic Signals – The Fed is set to skip a rate hike this month and deliver one in December instead. Policymakers are signalling patience, even though sticky inflation makes a case for a tougher stance. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of a hike at the October 27-28 meeting are as low as 16%, while traders still see a 90% chance of a hike in December.

Technical Triggers    

Gold is holding within a key support zone of $4,080–$4,200 (~₹1,45,000–₹1,51,000). If prices sustain above $4,200, a near-term rebound towards $4,400 (~₹1,58,000) looks likely. However, a break below support could drag prices down to $3,950 (~₹1,42,000).

Silver is also trading near its $57 support (~₹2,09,000). If it stays below this level, the next target would be $54–55.50 (~₹2,00,000–₹2,05,000), an area where buyers have stepped in twice before. A decisive move back above $59 (~₹2,16,000) could clear the way for a run towards $62 (~₹2,28,000).

Dr. Renisha Chainani, Chief Research Officer (CRO),Augmont