Price Movement – Gold is clinging to the $4000 floor as traders brace for this week’s Fed decision. Two forces are tugging in opposite directions. Oil above $110 keeps inflation and December rate-hike risk alive, while softer Treasury yields and steady physical buying lend support.

Investment Demand – China’s appetite for gold shows no sign of fading. September imports rose 34% Y/Y to a three-month high of 144.9 metric tons, and YTD imports have jumped 67% Y/Y to 1,286 tons.Western investment demand has cooled, but Asian physical buying should cushion prices in the coming weeks. India is the one to watch, with Diwali likely to spark fresh buying.

Macro-Economic Signals – All eyes are on the Fed’s policy decision, due at midnight today, and on Thursday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures data. That’s the gauge the central bank watches most closely against its 2% inflation target. The Fed is expected to hold rates at 4% today. The real worry is further out: CME FedWatch puts the odds of a December hike at 82%, and that’s the biggest headwind

for gold.

Technical Triggers

Short-term (10-15 days) – Gold has slipped below its key $4,000 (₹1,42,000) support, which leaves room for a further fall towards $3,950 (~₹1,40,000). Silver has also broken its $54.5 (~₹2,00,000) support and could ease towards the $50 (~₹1,80,000–1,85,000) zone.

Medium term (2-3 Months) – Both metals are trying to build a base, gold around $3,950–4,000 and silver around $50–55. These are strong support and accumulation zones. We expect prices to hold here and then rebound 10–15% over the coming weeks. For the uptrend to resume, gold needs to stay above $4,100 and silver above $58.

Dr. Renisha Chainani, Chief Research Officer (CRO),Augmont