Demand and Supply – Gold pushed past $4400, its highest mark in two months, as investors leaned back into precious metals even with inflation risks building. China’s central bank kept buying gold at pace last month, adding roughly 20 tons to its reserves in July after a 15-ton addition in June — the biggest one-month increase since October 2023.

Geopolitical Tensions – Iran and Oman are close to finalizing a deal on new shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran wants compensation from the US, an end to sanctions, and a halt to threats before it will reopen the route. There’s no direct US-Iran dialogue yet; intermediaries are still carrying messages between the two sides.

Macro-Economic Signals – Wednesday’s US consumer price report and Thursday’s producer price data will likely steer rate expectations, coming after last week’s soft July jobs numbers pushed markets to pare back bets on a Fed rate raise next month. Should the incoming data keep pointing to a slowing economy without inflation picking back up, markets may trim expectations for tighter policy even further.

Technical Triggers    

Gold’s break above $4200 (~₹1,46,000) opens the door to a run toward $4,500 (~₹1,56,000).

Silver’s move past $63 (~₹2,30,000) could clear the path toward $70-71 (~₹2,50,000-2,55,000).

Dr.Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont